基于欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）ERA5风场资料分析获得2020—2024年广东浅水海域100 m高度年平均风速为7.4 m/s,变异系数为0.44,风能稳定性较好。浅水海域年均风功率密度为414.5 W/m²,其中秋季风功率密度最高,为556.0 W/m²,夏季最低,为235.6 W/m²,与夏季用电负荷高峰存在错位。浅水海域年均风电潜力为3061×108 kW·h,按照上网电价与绿电溢价匡算,粤东、大湾区、粤西的年均风能生态产品经济价值分别为312亿元、428亿元、666亿元。根据近期规划装机数量,预计2030年前浅水海域风电发电量将达1136×108 kW·h,仅占潜在技术开发总量的37.1%,绿电开发及消纳空间较大。从规划区域来看,深水海域年均风速、风功率密度分别为8.5 m/s、645.4 W/m2,分别高于浅水海域14.9%、55.7%,潜在年均发电量约3632×108 kW·h,年均发电价值可达1670亿元,建议未来优先加快粤东深远海风电开发建设。
Abstract
The ERA5 wind field data from ECMWF is used to obtain an average annual wind speed of 7.4 m/s at the height of 100 m in shallow sea waters of Guangdong from 2020 to 2024, with a coefficient of variation of 0.44, indicating good wind energy stability. The average annual wind power density in shallow sea waters is 414.5 W/m², with the highest wind power density in autumn at 556.0 W/m² and the lowest in summer at 235.6 W/m², which is misaligned with the peak electricity load in summer. The average annual wind power potential in shallow sea waters is 3061×108 kW·h. Based on the grid electricity price and green power premium, the average annual economic value of wind energy ecological products in eastern Guangdong, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and western Guangdong is 31.2 billion yuan, 42.8 billion yuan, and 66.6 billion yuan, respectively. According to the recent planned installed capacity, it is expected that the wind power generation in shallow sea waters will reach 1136×108 kW·h by 2030, accounting for only 37.1% of the total potential technological development. There is a large space for green power development and consumption. From the perspective of the planning area, the average annual wind speed and wind power density in deep sea waters are 8.5 m/s and 643.7 W/m2, which are 14.9% and 55.3% higher than those in shallow sea waters, respectively. The potential annual power generation is about 3632×108 kW·h, and the average annual power generation value can reach 167 billion yuan. It is recommended to prioritize the development of deep-sea offshore wind power in eastern Guangdong in the future.
关键词
风能 /
风电场 /
风功率密度 /
生态价值 /
广东近海
Key words
wind power /
wind farm /
wind power density /
ecological value /
Guangdong coastal waters
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基金
中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室开放课题（2024005）; 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金（2024A1515510004）; 广东省气象局科学技术研究项目（GRMC2023M07）; 广州气象卫星地面站科学技术研究项目（2404）
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