ULTRA-SHORT TERM OFFSHORE WIND POWER PREDICTION BASED ON CONDITION-ASSESSMENT OFWIND TURBINES

Huang Lingling; Li Suo; Fu Yang; Wang Zhenshuai

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-0054

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (8) : 391-398. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-0054

ULTRA-SHORT TERM OFFSHORE WIND POWER PREDICTION BASED ON CONDITION-ASSESSMENT OFWIND TURBINES

Huang Lingling, Li Suo, Fu Yang, Wang Zhenshuai

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Abstract

In this paper, an ultra-short term offshore wind power prediction model based on condition-assessment of wind turbines is proposed. Firstly, considering the influences of marine environmental factors and complex correlations between the various components of the wind turbines, an index prediction model based on the dynamic deterioration is proposed. The dynamic deterioration obtained by the relative errors of Long Short-term Memory （LSTM） . Then, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is introduced to evaluate the operation conditions of wind turbines, according to which the historical operation data of the wind turbine are then categorized . Finally,an ultra-short term power prediction model is established. A case with the data from a domestic offshore wind farm is disscussed to illustrate the effectiveness and the prediction accuracy of the proposed methodology.

Key words

offshore wind turbines / long short-term memory / wind power / prediction model / condition assessment

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Huang Lingling, Li Suo, Fu Yang, Wang Zhenshuai. ULTRA-SHORT TERM OFFSHORE WIND POWER PREDICTION BASED ON CONDITION-ASSESSMENT OFWIND TURBINES[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2022, 43(8): 391-398 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-0054

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