RESEARCH ON SHORT-TERM IRRADIANCE PREDICTION BASED ON WRF-SOLAR MODEL AND SCA CORRECTION

Shang Yongpeng; Guo Junhong; Song Yu; Liu Wenjiao; Ma Wenjing; Li Wei

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-1469

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5) : 274-279. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-1469

RESEARCH ON SHORT-TERM IRRADIANCE PREDICTION BASED ON WRF-SOLAR MODEL AND SCA CORRECTION

Shang Yongpeng¹, Guo Junhong¹, Song Yu¹, Liu Wenjiao¹, Ma Wenjing², Li Wei¹

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Abstract

In this paper, combined with coupled stepwise clustering analysis （SCA）, the real time irradiance of different weather types was simulated and predicted based on the hourly weather factor output from the WRF-Solar model. It is indicated that the combination of the SCA revised coupling model greatly reduces the error of WRF-Solar, and the simulation results are better on sunny days and sunny to cloudy days （cloudy to sunny days）. The improvement is particularly obvious in rainy weather, with the relative error reduced from 64.03% to 24.71% and the root mean square error reduced from 78.02% to 38.02%. It suggests that the coupled model combined with the SCA revision method can reduce the error of WRF-Solar caused by the randomness and mutation of weather, and can simulate the trend of hourly irradiance magnificently.

Key words

weather forecast / stepwise cluster analysis / irradiance / WRF-Solar / meteorological factor

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Shang Yongpeng, Guo Junhong, Song Yu, Liu Wenjiao, Ma Wenjing, Li Wei. RESEARCH ON SHORT-TERM IRRADIANCE PREDICTION BASED ON WRF-SOLAR MODEL AND SCA CORRECTION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2023, 44(5): 274-279 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-1469

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