REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION METHOD OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DEGRADATION TRAJECTORY AND WIENER MODEL

Chen Wei; Lei Huan; Pei Tingting; Li Xubin

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0435

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (7) : 175-181. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0435

REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION METHOD OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DEGRADATION TRAJECTORY AND WIENER MODEL

Chen Wei, Lei Huan, Pei Tingting, Li Xubin

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Abstract

To address the non-monotonic and stochastic characteristics of the PV module degradation process and the need for adaptive prediction of the remaining life of the module,a degradation model based on the Wiener process is established,on this basis,a method for adaptively updating the remaining life of PV modules in conjunction with the degradation trajectory is proposed. First, the PV module power degradation model based on the Wiener process is constructed to describe the non-monotonicity of the module degradation process,as well as the time uncertainty and individual differences of the module degradation process. Then, based on the degradation trajectory of the PV module,the Bayesian update and expectation maximization （EM） algorithm are combined to perform a real-time adaptive update of the model parameters,on this basis,the remaining life distribution of PV module is predicted. Finally, the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method are verified by comparing the errors of the remaining life prediction values of PV modules under different scenarios.

Key words

photovoltaic modules / degradation / failure / stochastic model / remaining life

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Chen Wei, Lei Huan, Pei Tingting, Li Xubin. REMAINING LIFE PREDICTION METHOD OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DEGRADATION TRAJECTORY AND WIENER MODEL[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2023, 44(7): 175-181 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0435

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