MODELING METHOD OF WIND SPEED FLUCTUATION CHARACTERISTICS CONSIDERING NON-INDEPENDENT INCREMENTAL PROCESS

Zhang Jiaan; Wang Junyan; Dong Cun; Liu Hui; Wang Tiecheng; Li Zhijun

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0833

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (10) : 284-290. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0833

MODELING METHOD OF WIND SPEED FLUCTUATION CHARACTERISTICS CONSIDERING NON-INDEPENDENT INCREMENTAL PROCESS

Zhang Jiaan^1,2, Wang Junyan³, Dong Cun⁴, Liu Hui⁵, Wang Tiecheng⁶, Li Zhijun^1,2

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Abstract

The characteristics of wind speed fluctuation are complex, and accurate modeling for wind speed fluctuation characteristics is of great significance to the safe, stable and economic operation of wind power system. In order to improve the accuracy of wind speed modeling, a non-independent incremental process modeling method for wind speed fluctuation is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the time series fluctuation characteristics of wind speed are analyzed, and the short-term fluctuation characteristics and long-term fluctuation characteristics of wind speed are described respectively. Then, according to the short-term fluctuation characteristics of wind speed, the statistical method is used to analyze the time-series variation characteristics of a certain wind speed range, establish its short-term fluctuation model, and extrapolate the wind speed range based on LSTM neural network, so as to establish an accurate short-term fluctuation model in the whole wind speed range; According to the long-term fluctuation characteristics of wind speed, the weight analysis method is used to introduce it into the model, and an optimization model considering the long-term fluctuation characteristics is established. The validity of the modeling method is verified by taking the operation data of a wind farm in Zhangjiakou, North China as an example.

Key words

wind farm / wind speed / statistical methods / time series / fluctuation modeling / non-independent incremental process

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Zhang Jiaan, Wang Junyan, Dong Cun, Liu Hui, Wang Tiecheng, Li Zhijun. MODELING METHOD OF WIND SPEED FLUCTUATION CHARACTERISTICS CONSIDERING NON-INDEPENDENT INCREMENTAL PROCESS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2023, 44(10): 284-290 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-0833

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