SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER COMBINATION PREDICTION BASED ON HPO-VMD AND MISMA-DHKELM

Wang Chao; Lin Hong; Pang Xiaohong

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-1225

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2023, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (12) : 65-73. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-1225

SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER COMBINATION PREDICTION BASED ON HPO-VMD AND MISMA-DHKELM

Wang Chao^1,2, Lin Hong¹, Pang Xiaohong²

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Abstract

To improve the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power generation, a short-term photovoltaic power combination forecasting method based on optimized variational mode decomposition （VMD）, multi-strategy improved slime mold algorithm （MISMA） and deep hybrid kernel extreme leaning machine （DHKELM） is proposed. Firstly, the VMD decomposition technology is used to decompose the power data of different weather types into multiple modal components. In order to avoid the frequency confusion between modal components, the hunter-prey optimizer （HPO） algorithm is used to optimize the key parameters of VMD-decomposition level and penalty factors. Then DHKELM prediction model is established for each component decomposed by different weather types, and MISMA is used to optimize the hyperparameters of DHKELM model. Finally, the summation and reconstruction of each modal component prediction results are taken as the final prediction results. The actual data of a photovoltaic power station in Xinjiang are used for experimental analysis. The experimental results show that this method can achieve better forecasting effect under different weather types. Its prediction acc uracy is viously better than that of a single prediction model. Compared with other methods, the effectiveness of the method is verified.

Key words

photovoltaic power / variational mode decomposition / combined prediction / multi-strategy improved slime mould algorithm / deep hybrid kernel extreme leaning machine

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Wang Chao, Lin Hong, Pang Xiaohong. SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER COMBINATION PREDICTION BASED ON HPO-VMD AND MISMA-DHKELM[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2023, 44(12): 65-73 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2022-1225

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