ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND POWER PREDICTION BASED ON MULTI-GRANULARITY TEMPORAL CONVOLUTION NETWORK

Jiang Guoqian; Xu Xiangdong; Bai Jiarong; He Qun; Xie Ping; Shan Wei

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0006

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (5) : 104-111. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0006

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND POWER PREDICTION BASED ON MULTI-GRANULARITY TEMPORAL CONVOLUTION NETWORK

Jiang Guoqian¹, Xu Xiangdong¹, Bai Jiarong¹, He Qun¹, Xie Ping¹, Shan Wei²

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Abstract

To address the problem that traditional wind power prediction methods are usually based on the fixed time granularity and often ignore the influence of other time granularity. an ultra-short-term wind power prediction method based on multi-granularity time convolution network （MGTCN） is proposed. In our proposed method, the temporal convolution network （TCN） is used to mine the characteristics of wind turbine data from a multi-granularity perspective, and a multi-granularity feature fusion module is designed to enhance the robustness of the model and improve the accuracy of wind power prediction. Firstly, the random forest algorithm （RF） is used to select related feature data with strong correlation with the output power. Then, the filtered feature data is divided into multiple granularities, and the independent features of each granularity are extracted through TCN. Finally, the squeeze and excitation network （SENet） is used to adaptively weight the fusion of different granularity features to obtain the final prediction value. A wind field data in China is used for example analysis. The results show that compared with other methods, our proposed method achieved the best performance with high accuracy and stability on both the twenty-four-step prediction task and the six-step prediction task. Specifically, in terms of three common prediction performance metrics, including normalized root mean square error, normalize mean absolute error and R², our proposed method obtained the best performance with 0.152, 0.108 and 0.7214, respectively on the twenty-four-step prediction task. For the six-step prediction task, it achieved 0.1027, 0.0683 and 0.8717, respectively.

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wind power / prediction / random forests / multi-granularity computing / temporal convolution network / squeeze and excitation network

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Jiang Guoqian, Xu Xiangdong, Bai Jiarong, He Qun, Xie Ping, Shan Wei. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND POWER PREDICTION BASED ON MULTI-GRANULARITY TEMPORAL CONVOLUTION NETWORK[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2024, 45(5): 104-111 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0006

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