ULTRA-SHORT-TERM PV POWER DYNAMIC PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON SFLA AND MSISSA-ANFIS

Li Lianbing; Gao Guoqiang; Tao Peng; Zhang Chao; Zhao Shasha; Chen Weiguang

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0957

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (10) : 326-335. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0957

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM PV POWER DYNAMIC PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON SFLA AND MSISSA-ANFIS

Li Lianbing¹, Gao Guoqiang², Tao Peng³, Zhang Chao³, Zhao Shasha³, Chen Weiguang²

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Abstract

PV power output is characterized by volatility and randomness, and accurate power prediction has important application value for safe grid operation in the process of achieving grid connection. In this paper, an intra-day dynamic prediction model of ultra-short-term PV power based on SFLA, MSISSA and ANFIS is proposed. Firstly, MSISSA is used to optimize the ANFIS model for its drawback of being influenced by the membership function, and the power prediction model based on SFLA and MSISSA-ANFIS is constructed by combining the SFLA method of selecting similar days. Then a feature vector is constructed to predict the PV power for the next 4 h based on the set of power, meteorological features and similar days with high correlation. Finally, the real-time updated future meteorological data obtained from small weather stations are stored in the database and predicted every 15 min to realize the intra-day dynamic prediction of PV power. The results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of ultra-short-term PV prediction。

Key words

photovoltaic power prediction / time series / adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system / algorithm optimization / similar day selection

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Li Lianbing, Gao Guoqiang, Tao Peng, Zhang Chao, Zhao Shasha, Chen Weiguang. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM PV POWER DYNAMIC PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON SFLA AND MSISSA-ANFIS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2024, 45(10): 326-335 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0957

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