PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PREDICTION MODEL BASED ON GWO-GRU

Chen Qingming; Liao Hongfei; Sun Yingkai; Zen Yasen

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1248

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (7) : 438-444. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1248

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PREDICTION MODEL BASED ON GWO-GRU

Chen Qingming¹, Liao Hongfei¹, Sun Yingkai², Zen Yasen¹

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Abstract

The long short-term memory network （LSTM） model has the problem of long time consumption or low accuracy when applied to the prediction of photovoltaic power generation. A photovoltaic power power prediction model based on the grey wolf algorithm （GWO） optimized gated recurrent unit （GRU） was proposed. The photovoltaic power prediction model is established by the approximate optimal hyperparameter, which is obtained by the GWO algorithm. The results show that in terms of long-term power prediction, the GWO-GRU model has lower root mean square error, higher fitting coefficients, and less time consumption, with an average absolute error reduction of 10.20% compared to traditional LSTM models. In terms of short-term power prediction, the GWO-GRU model not only has the lowest average prediction error and the strongest stability under three typical weather conditions, but also saves 17.24% of the average time compared to the GWO-LSTM model. Power predictions of different durations indicate that GWO-GRU performs better in predicting photovoltaic power compared to LSTM.

Key words

photovoltaic power generation / power forecasting / gated recurrent unit / grey wolf optimizer / long short-term memory / time series

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Chen Qingming, Liao Hongfei, Sun Yingkai, Zen Yasen. PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PREDICTION MODEL BASED ON GWO-GRU[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2024, 45(7): 438-444 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1248

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