ASYMPTOTIC PREDICTION METHOD FOR SHORT-TERM WIND POWER IN SEQUENTIAL PERSPECTIVE

Gao Yuhang; Jiang Aihua; Tian Junyang; Gan Dingfu

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1508

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 504-513. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1508

ASYMPTOTIC PREDICTION METHOD FOR SHORT-TERM WIND POWER IN SEQUENTIAL PERSPECTIVE

Gao Yuhang¹, Jiang Aihua¹, Tian Junyang², Gan Dingfu¹

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Abstract

Short-term wind power prediction plays a crucial role in formulating effective power system production scheduling plans, but the inherent stochastic nature and volatility of wind power output present challenges to achieving high prediction accuracy. This paper addresses several limitations prevalent in existing prediction methods, including the neglect of time delay similarity in sequential sub-processes, reliance on sequence decomposition effects, and the suboptimal accuracy of current approaches. In response to these challenges, the WSTD-improved Autoformer combination prediction method is proposed. Firstly, the preprocessing of raw data is performed using wavelet soft threshold denoising to mitigate the impact of noise on prediction accuracy. Secondly, the Autoformer model, characterized by its autocorrelation mechanism, is employed for short-term wind power prediction, exploring periodic dependencies from a sequential perspective. Additionally, a deep decomposition architecture based on multi-level discrete wavelet transforms is constructed to enhance the Autoformer model's capability to decompose intricate temporal patterns. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed combination prediction model outperforms individual models and exhibits excellent adaptability. In the four seasonal scenarios, the RMSE and MAE metrics decreased by an average of 19.86% and 19.07%, and the R² increased by an average of 5.15% compared to the Autoformer model.

Key words

wind power / wavelet transforms / autocorrelation / improved Autoformer model / short-term prediction

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Gao Yuhang, Jiang Aihua, Tian Junyang, Gan Dingfu. ASYMPTOTIC PREDICTION METHOD FOR SHORT-TERM WIND POWER IN SEQUENTIAL PERSPECTIVE[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(3): 504-513 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1508

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