ANALYTICAL MODEL OF WIND POWER CAPACITY CREDIT CONSIDERING CORRELATION BETWEEN WIND POWER AND LOAD

Bai Yunjie; Xie Kaigui; Shao Changzheng; Hu Bo; Li Chunyan; Yang Hongzhi

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1634

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2) : 633-639. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1634

ANALYTICAL MODEL OF WIND POWER CAPACITY CREDIT CONSIDERING CORRELATION BETWEEN WIND POWER AND LOAD

Bai Yunjie¹, Xie Kaigui¹, Shao Changzheng¹, Hu Bo¹, Li Chunyan¹, Yang Hongzhi²

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Abstract

An analytical model for wind power capacity credit that accounts for the correlation between wind power and load is proposed in this paper, based on the exponential approximation of the system cumulative probability function （abbreviated as the cumulative probability function）. Firstly, through the cumulative probability function under different load conditions, an analytical formula for the reliability index of a power system incorporating wind power, while considering the correlation between wind power and load, is developed. Then, the system reliability function after integrating wind power is expressed in terms of the cumulative probability function before integrating wind power, utilizing the recursive formula of the cumulative probability function. Finally, using the exponential of the cumulative probability function of the system before integrating wind power and equating the system reliability index before and after integrating wind power, the analytical formula of wind power credibility is obtained through simplification. Modified RBTS is utilized to verify the correctness of the proposed model, and the case study indicates that the proposed model can effectively consider the correlation, and significantly improve accuracy, compared with the existing analytical model without considering correlation.

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wind power / reliability / analytical models / correlation / capacity credit

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Bai Yunjie, Xie Kaigui, Shao Changzheng, Hu Bo, Li Chunyan, Yang Hongzhi. ANALYTICAL MODEL OF WIND POWER CAPACITY CREDIT CONSIDERING CORRELATION BETWEEN WIND POWER AND LOAD[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(2): 633-639 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1634

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