LINEAR DECOMPOSITION AND PERIODIC ENHANCEMENT IN SHORT-TERM SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING WITH INFORMER

Yao Rui; Liu Xiaofang

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1655

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2) : 505-510. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1655

LINEAR DECOMPOSITION AND PERIODIC ENHANCEMENT IN SHORT-TERM SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING WITH INFORMER

Yao Rui^1,2, Liu Xiaofang¹

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Abstract

In response to the inadequacy in capturing trend and periodic features, a method for short arrival prediction of surface solar radiation :s proposed decomposition and periodic-enhancement linear Informer. Firstly, an improved grey relational analysis method captures the correlation between historical irradiance and various external meteorological factors. This method extracts 16 highly correlated external meteorological features, thus enhancing the model's ability to capture the intricate relationship between irradiance and meteorological factors. Subsequently, the Informer model is augmented with periodic embedding layers and ReLU activation functions, which better represents the periodic variations in solar irradiance and provides more accurate temporal features. Finally, an integration of the decomposition scheme from Autoformer and the linear layer from FEDformer as a decomposition linear layer after the Informer. This amalgamation enhances the model’s capability to capture the periodic trends and seasonal components in time series solar irradiance data. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed Informer Decomposition Linear model, in conjunction with external meteorological features, remarkably improves short-term forecasting performance, surpassing the accuracy of recently prominent Transformer-based approaches. In comparison to the best-performing DLinear model, the maximum

Key words

solar irradiance / Informer / Transformer / smoothing sequential linear decomposition / periodic embedding / grey relational degree

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Yao Rui, Liu Xiaofang. LINEAR DECOMPOSITION AND PERIODIC ENHANCEMENT IN SHORT-TERM SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING WITH INFORMER[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(2): 505-510 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1655

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