POWER FORECAST OF WIND POWER CLUSTER IN SHORT-TERM EXTENSION BASED ON FLUCTUATION INFORMATION OPTIMIZATION AND SWITCHING INPUT MECHANISM

Yang Mao; Ju Chaoyi; Zhang Wei; Su Xin

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1776

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 546-558. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1776

POWER FORECAST OF WIND POWER CLUSTER IN SHORT-TERM EXTENSION BASED ON FLUCTUATION INFORMATION OPTIMIZATION AND SWITCHING INPUT MECHANISM

Yang Mao, Ju Chaoyi, Zhang Wei, Su Xin

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Abstract

In the field of wind power forecast, the longest forecast period for existing short-term time scale research and applications is 7 days, and there is a lack of forecast research on the 8-15 day short-term extension period time scale. To solve the above problems, this study proposed an 8-15 day short-term extension forecast framework based on the weather process mining and switching mechanism, focusing on the forecast of future output levels, and divided historical selection into volatility first historical selection and stability first historical selection, and used stability first historical selection to balance errors when the performance of volatility first historical selection was poor. The proposed framework was verified in a wind power cluster in Gansu Province. The results show that the root-mean-square error of the proposed framework decreases by 0.84 to 1.45 percentage points on average on all timescales of 8-15 days, and the 8-15 days forecast is realized under the condition of lack of availability of NWP, and the reliability of short-term extension forecast is improved.

Key words

wind power / forecasting / switching / optimization / short-term / short-term extension

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Yang Mao, Ju Chaoyi, Zhang Wei, Su Xin. POWER FORECAST OF WIND POWER CLUSTER IN SHORT-TERM EXTENSION BASED ON FLUCTUATION INFORMATION OPTIMIZATION AND SWITCHING INPUT MECHANISM[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(3): 546-558 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1776

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