WIND VECTOR DECOMPOSITION AND ROBUSTSTL-TIMESNET-BIGRU WIND DIRECTION FORECASTING IN COMPLEX TERRAIN

Liu Yang; Wang Cong; Zhang Hongli; Ma Ping; Li Xinkai

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1828

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 576-588. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1828

WIND VECTOR DECOMPOSITION AND ROBUSTSTL-TIMESNET-BIGRU WIND DIRECTION FORECASTING IN COMPLEX TERRAIN

Liu Yang¹, Wang Cong², Zhang Hongli², Ma Ping¹, Li Xinkai¹

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Abstract

Aiming at wind direction forecasting in complex terrain, this paper proposes a multi-step wind direction forecasting method based on wind vector orthogonal decomposition, Robust Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess （RobustSTL）, the TimesNet model, and a bidirectional gated recurrent unit network （BiGRU） for error compensation. Firstly, to reduce the significant fluctuation caused by the circular characteristics of the original wind direction, the wind direction and the correlated wind speed are converted into a less fluctuating vector wind speed using the wind vector orthogonal decomposition method. This vector wind speed is then decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components using RobustSTL. Secondly, each component after decomposition is trained using the TimesNet model, and preliminary forecasting results are obtained. The components are then summed and reconstructed to form the initial wind direction forecast. To further extract deep features from the initial forecasting errors and enhance accuracy, the BiGRU network is used for modeling and training the forecasting errors. Finally, the predicted error is combined with the initial forecast to obtain the final wind direction forecast. The proposed multi-step wind direction forecasting hybrid model is validated using real data from a complex terrain wind farm, and the results demonstrate its high forecasting accuracy.

Key words

wind farm / forecasting / error compensation / TimesNet model / wind direction

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Liu Yang, Wang Cong, Zhang Hongli, Ma Ping, Li Xinkai. WIND VECTOR DECOMPOSITION AND ROBUSTSTL-TIMESNET-BIGRU WIND DIRECTION FORECASTING IN COMPLEX TERRAIN[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(3): 576-588 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1828

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