ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION BASED ON SAMPLE ENTROPY-BASED DUAL DECOMPOSITION AND SSA-LSTM

Wang Xi; Sun Na; Su Hao; Zhang Nan; Zhang Shuai; Ji Jie

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1888

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 611-618. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1888

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION BASED ON SAMPLE ENTROPY-BASED DUAL DECOMPOSITION AND SSA-LSTM

Wang Xi¹, Sun Na^1,2, Su Hao¹, Zhang Nan¹, Zhang Shuai², Ji Jie¹

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Abstract

To improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term wind speed prediction, a coupled model named DILSTM is proposed, which combines sample entropy, dual decomposition, and sparrow search algorithm optimized long short-term memory neural network （LSTM）. Firstly, the original sequence is decomposed using variational mode decomposition （VMD） and the complexity of each sub sequence is quantified through sample entropy; the subsequence with the highest complexity is further decomposed using complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise （CEEMDAN）, further extracting features and filtering noise; Finally, the sub sequences obtained from the double decomposition are used to establish DILSTM prediction models, and the final wind speed prediction results are obtained by overlaying the prediction results of all sub sequences. The experimental results of real wind field data show the proposed model outperforms single models such as LSTM, random forest （RF）, and convolutional neural network （CNN）, with an approximately 25% increase in R² and a 65% decrease in RMSE; Meanwhile, compared with existing similar studies, the advantages of the DILSTM model proposed in this paper have been confirmed. This study provides a new method for improving the accuracy of ultra-short-term wind speed prediction.

Key words

wind speed / neural network / forecasting / variational mode decomposition / sample entropy / sparrow search algorithm

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Wang Xi, Sun Na, Su Hao, Zhang Nan, Zhang Shuai, Ji Jie. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND SPEED PREDICTION BASED ON SAMPLE ENTROPY-BASED DUAL DECOMPOSITION AND SSA-LSTM[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(3): 611-618 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1888

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