MODELING OF DECOMMISSIONED PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULE SCALE IN CHINA

Bai Hualin; Wang Qing; Jiang Hua

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1937

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3) : 435-444. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1937

MODELING OF DECOMMISSIONED PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULE SCALE IN CHINA

Bai Hualin¹, Wang Qing¹, Jiang Hua^1,2

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Abstract

For the PV module recycling industry in China, there is an issue of lacking a dynamic market size prediction model with sufficient accuracy. The study, focusing on the scale of decommissioned PV modules in China, address the issue by establishing a model with multiple consideration of details covering module replacement work during operation, the variability of replacement ratio, DC/AC ratio, etc. The model is based on different module sources in consist of PV station operation, manufacturing as well as engineering. Several optimization work could be applied for the further study including renovation and recognition of recycling and reuse. The study shows that currently the decommissioned PV module scale is in a relative low level with 0.35 million ton of cumulative mass in 2030 where manufacturing and engineering sources are in considerable proportion. The outburst will start from 2035 and a significant growth will propel the cumulative mass from 1.13 million ton reaching 74.23 million ton in 2050. The enterprises in the industry shall discreetly plan their work in different phases, accounting the market size, policies as well as the technique development into their considerations.

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PV modules / recycling / market research / prediction models / sustainable development

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Bai Hualin, Wang Qing, Jiang Hua. MODELING OF DECOMMISSIONED PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULE SCALE IN CHINA[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(3): 435-444 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1937

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