SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AND ANALYSIS ON HIGH QUALITY DEVELOPMENT OF HYDROGEN ENERGY INDUSTRY

Nie Huiyang; Li Lei

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0017

PDF(1846 KB)

Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (7) : 491-502. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0017

Special Topics of Academic Papers at the 78th Annual Meeting of the China Association for Science and Technology

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AND ANALYSIS ON HIGH QUALITY DEVELOPMENT OF HYDROGEN ENERGY INDUSTRY

Nie Huiyang, Li Lei

Author information +

History +

Abstract

China’s hydrogen energy industry is currently in its initial stages, characterized by a weak foundation and inadequate coordination between supply and demand. Advancing the high-quality development of the hydrogen energy sector has emerged as a critical issue within the energy reform landscape. To address the challenges of supply and demand in the hydrogen energy sector, a system dynamics model was formulated to simulate China’s hydrogen energy development trajectory from 2021 to 2035. By leveraging this simulation, the study delved into the ramifications of three regulatory scenarios—namely, promoting hydrogen production from renewable sources for local consumption, accelerating the adoption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and fostering technological advancements—on the evolution of the hydrogen energy industry in China. This research culminates in targeted policy recommendations aimed at propelling the high-quality advancement of China’s burgeoning emerging hydrogen energy industry.

Key words

hydrogen energy / supply-demand structure / technological innovation / overcapacity / system dynamics / scenario simulation

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

Nie Huiyang, Li Lei. SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AND ANALYSIS ON HIGH QUALITY DEVELOPMENT OF HYDROGEN ENERGY INDUSTRY[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(7): 491-502 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0017

References

[1] 邬彩霞. 中国低碳经济发展的协同效应研究[J]. 管理世界, 2021, 37(8): 105-117.
WU C X.Research on the synergistic effect of low-carbon economy in China[J]. Journal of management world, 2021, 37(8): 105-117.
[2] 李华洋, 谭强, 陈家傲, 等. 基于文献计量法的中国氢能研究历程[J]. 太阳能学报, 2024, 45(5): 276-288.
LI H Y, TAN Q, CHEN J A, et al.Evolution of hydrogen energy research in China based on bibliometric analysis[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2024, 45(5): 276-288.
[3] 李萌, 龚群超, 潘家华. 碳中和目标下中国小水电价值评估与发展战略转型[J]. 北京工业大学学报(社会科学版), 2022, 22(2): 86-104.
LI M, GONG Q C, PAN J H.Evaluation and strategic transformation of China’s small hydropower under the goal of carbon neutrality[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Technology (social sciences edition), 2022, 22(2): 86-104.
[4] 曾升, 李进, 王鑫, 等. 中国氢能利用技术进展及前景展望[J]. 电源技术, 2022, 46(7): 716-722.
ZENG S, LI J, WANG X, et al.Progress and prospect of hydrogen energy utilization technology in China[J]. Chinese journal of power sources, 2022, 46(7): 716-722.
[5] 王灿, 李浩, 张洪秩, 等. 全球温控目标对我国氢能发展的影响评估[J]. 技术经济, 2023, 42(2): 121-132.
WANG C, LI H, ZHANG H Z, et al.Impact assessment of global temperature control target on hydrogen energy development in China[J]. Journal of technical economics, 2023, 42(2): 121-132.
[6] 斯琴卓娅, 许晓敏, 郑世鹏, 等. 考虑风光出力不确定性的含电制氢装置的电-气耦合配网系统经济运行分析[J]. 技术经济, 2022, 41(11): 24-39.
SIQIN Z Y, XU X M, ZHENG S P, et al.Economic operation analysis of electric-gas coupling distribution network system for hydrogen production plant with electricity considering wind-wind output uncertainty[J]. Technology and economics, 2022, 41(11): 24-39.
[7] 孟照鑫, 何青, 胡华为, 等. 我国氢能产业发展现状与思考[J]. 现代化工, 2022, 42(1): 1-6, 12.
MENG Z X, HE Q, HU H W, et al.Current situation and thinking of hydrogen industry development in China[J]. Modern chemical industry, 2022, 42(1): 1-6,12.
[8] 黄宣旭, 沈威, 丁光宏. 上海城市碳中和与氢能应用场景研究[J]. 南方能源建设, 2023, 10(3): 11-22.
HUANG X X, SHEN W, DING G H.Study on application scenarios of carbon neutrality and hydrogen energy in Shanghai[J]. Southern energy construction, 2023, 10(3): 11-22.
[9] 曹勇, 程诺, 罗大清. 能源转型大势下的氢能产业新角色[J]. 石油石化绿色低碳, 2022, 7(1): 1-5.
CAO Y, CHENG N, LUO D Q.The new role of hydrogen energy industry in energy transition[J]. Green petroleum & petrochemicals, 2022, 7(1): 1-5.
[10] 陈向国. 我国氢能产业发展将进入快车道[J]. 节能与环保, 2022(7): 24-25.
CHEN X G.China’s hydrogen energy industry will enter the fast lane[J]. Energy conservation & environmental protection, 2022(7): 24-25.
[11] 赵春富, 刘耕源, 陈彬. 能源预测预警理论与方法研究进展[J]. 生态学报, 2015, 35(7): 2399-2413.
ZHAO C F, LIU G Y, CHEN B.Advances in theories and methods of energy forecasting and early warning[J]. Acta ecologica sinica, 2015, 35(7): 2399-2413.
[12] 张红, 袁铁江, 谭捷. 统一能源系统氢负荷中长期预测[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2021, 41(10): 3364-3372, 3662.
ZHANG H, YUAN T J, TAN J.Medium and long-term forecast of hydrogen load in unified energy system[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2021, 41(10): 3364-3372, 3662.
[13] 熊亚林, 刘玮, 高鹏博, 等. “双碳” 目标下氢能在我国合成氨行业的需求与减碳路径[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2022, 11(12): 4048-4058.
XIONG Y L, LIU W, GAO P B, et al.Research on the hydrogen energy demand and carbon-reduction path in China’s synthetic ammonia industry to achieve the“carbon peak” and“carbon neutrality” goals[J]. Energy storage science and technology, 2022, 11(12): 4048-4058.
[14] LI Z, HOU S D, CAO X, et al.Modeling and analysis of hydrogen storage wind and gas complementary power generation system[J]. Energy exploration & exploitation, 2021, 39(4): 1306-1323.
[15] 程宏波, 商子轩, 郭源曦, 等. 车网互动过程的系统动力学分析[J]. 电网技术, 2021, 45(10): 4125-4133.
CHENG H B, SHANG Z X, GUO Y X, et al.Research on vehicle-to-grid process based on system dynamics[J]. Power system technology, 2021, 45(10): 4125-4133.
[16] 何则, 周彦楠, 刘毅. 2050年中国能源消费结构的系统动力学模拟: 基于重点行业的转型情景[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(11): 2696-2707.
HE Z, ZHOU Y N, LIU Y.System dynamics simulation of china's energy consumption structure in 2050: based on transformation scenario of key industries[J]. Journal of natural resources, 2020, 35(11): 2696-2707.
[17] YU Z H, LI Z, MA L W.Strategies for the resilience of power-coal supply chains in low-carbon energy transition: a system dynamics model and scenario analysis of China up to 2060[J]. Sustainability, 2023, 15(9): 7154.
[18] 韩红梅, 杨铮, 王敏, 等. 我国氢气生产和利用现状及展望[J]. 中国煤炭, 2021, 47(5): 59-63.
HAN H M, YANG Z, WANG M, et al.The current situation and prospect of hydrogen production and utilization in China[J]. China coal, 2021, 47(5): 59-63.
[19] 袁家海, 牟琪林, 许传博, 等. 基于系统动力学的中国绿氢产业发展政策仿真[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2023, 33(6): 49-58.
YUAN J H, MOU Q L, XU C B, et al.Simulation of China’s green hydrogen industry development policy based on system dynamics[J]. China population, resources and environment, 2023, 33(6): 49-58.
[20] 周专, 苗帅, 袁铁江. 基于系统动力学的交通领域氢能需求预测[J]. 电力自动化设备, 2024, 44(4): 33-39, 47.
ZHOU Z, MIAO S, YUAN T J.Prediction of hydrogen demand in transportation field based on system dynamics[J]. Electric power automation equipment, 2024, 44(4): 33-39, 47.
[21] 沈镭, 刘立涛, 王礼茂, 等. 2050年中国能源消费的情景预测[J]. 自然资源学报, 2015, 30(3): 361-373.
SHEN L, LIU L T, WANG L M, et al.Scenario prediction of China’s energy consumption in 2050[J]. Journal of natural resources, 2015, 30(3): 361-373.
[22] 郝文斌, 曾鹏, 谢波, 等. 基于博弈论的含氢能配电网系统优化重构研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2023, 44(8): 77-84.
HAO W B, ZENG P, XIE B, et al.Game theory-based optimal reconfiguration for distribution network system with hydrogen energy[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2023, 44(8): 77-84.
[23] LI C Z, ZHANG L B, OU Z H, et al.Using system dynamics to evaluate the impact of subsidy policies on green hydrogen industry in China[J]. Energy policy, 2022, 165: 112981.
[24] 王彦哲, 欧训民, 周胜. 基于学习曲线的中国未来制氢成本趋势研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(3): 283-293.
WANG Y Z, OU X M, ZHOU S.Study on the future cost trend of hydrogen production in China based on learning curve[J]. Advances in climate change research, 2022, 18(3): 283-293.
[25] 丁镠, 唐涛, 王耀萱, 等. 氢储运技术研究进展与发展趋势[J]. 天然气化工—C1化学与化工, 2022, 47(2): 35-40.
DING L, TANG T, WANG Y X, et al.Research progress and development trend of hydrogen storage and transportation technology[J]. Natural gas chemical industry, 2022, 47(2): 35-40.
[26] 张轩, 樊昕晔, 吴振宇, 等. 氢能供应链成本分析及建议[J]. 化工进展, 2022, 41(5): 2364-2371.
ZHANG X, FAN X Y, WU Z Y, et al.Hydrogen energy supply chain cost analysis and suggestions[J]. Chemical industry and engineering progress, 2022, 41(5): 2364-2371.
[27] 师瑞峰, 宁津, 高毓钦, 等. 含氢储能的公路交通风、光自洽微网系统优化调度策略研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2023, 44(11): 513-521.
SHI R F, NING J, GAO Y Q, et al.Research on optimal dispatch strategy of wind and solar self-consistent microgrid in road transportation system with hydrogen energy storage[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2023, 44(11): 513-521.
[28] 何钰江, 刘会灯, 王皓宇, 等. “双碳”目标下氢能发展体系构建和产业创新布局展望[J]. 电工电能新技术, 2023, 42(9): 65-76.
HE Y J, LIU H D, WANG H Y, et al.Prospect of hydrogen energy development system construction and industrial innovation layout under the goal of "dual carbon"[J]. New technology of electric energy, 2023, 42(9): 65-76.
[29] 国家发展和改革委员会, 国家能源局. 氢能产业发展中长期规划(2021—2035年)[EB/OL]. (2022-03-23)[2024-04-07]. http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/2022-03/23/c_1310525630.htm.
National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration. A plan on the development of hydrogen energy for the2021—2035 period[EB/OL]. (2022-03-23)[2024-04-07].http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/2022-03/23/c_1310525630.htm.