RESEARCH ON AGING ASSESSMENT AND POWER GENERATION PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM BASED ON MONTE CARLO METHOD

Tang Shuangshuang; Bai Jianbo; Hou Tiancai; Nie Haiyuan; Xiang Lipeng; Zheng Shuang

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0089

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5) : 311-319. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0089

RESEARCH ON AGING ASSESSMENT AND POWER GENERATION PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM BASED ON MONTE CARLO METHOD

Tang Shuangshuang¹, Bai Jianbo², Hou Tiancai¹, Nie Haiyuan¹, Xiang Lipeng¹, Zheng Shuang¹

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Abstract

A comprehensive photovoltaic system aging assessment and power generation prediction model was constructed to address the issue of components aging during the operation of the photovoltaic system, and its effectiveness was validated. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the inconsistent changes in electrical parameters due to component aging to calculate the total aging rate and mismatch rate caused by varying aging rates. Additionally, the annual power generation during the operation of the photovoltaic system was predicted based on the total aging rate. The total aging rate and power generation prediction of different photovoltaic systems over 25 years of operation were simulated based on case analysis. The comparison results show that the algorithm model using Monte Carlo exhibits high accuracy and can be applied to evaluate the total aging rate and predict future power generation of the photovoltaic system during operation. Finally, phased maintenance recommendations were provided based on the aging patterns of photovoltaic systems.

Key words

photovoltaic system / power generation / aging / mismatch / Monte Carlo method

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Tang Shuangshuang, Bai Jianbo, Hou Tiancai, Nie Haiyuan, Xiang Lipeng, Zheng Shuang. RESEARCH ON AGING ASSESSMENT AND POWER GENERATION PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM BASED ON MONTE CARLO METHOD[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(5): 311-319 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0089

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