PHOTOVOLTAIC ADAPTIVE POWER PREDICTION MODEL BASED ON METEOROLOGICAL DATA EXTRAPOLATION AND SIGNIFICANCE ANALYSIS

Wang Lijie; Zhang Qingshan; Hao Ying; Zhou Ying; Qiu Min; Sun Chong

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0132

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2) : 317-325. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0132

PHOTOVOLTAIC ADAPTIVE POWER PREDICTION MODEL BASED ON METEOROLOGICAL DATA EXTRAPOLATION AND SIGNIFICANCE ANALYSIS

Wang Lijie¹, Zhang Qingshan¹, Hao Ying², Zhou Ying³, Qiu Min³, Sun Chong⁴

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Abstract

Distributed photovoltaic power stations typically possess a relatively small installed capacity and generally do not conduct real-time power statistics, posing challenges to directly establish power prediction models. This paper proposes an adaptive power prediction model based on meteorological data extrapolation and significance analysis aiming at the diversity of installation models and methods for photovoltaic panels in distributed photovoltaic power stations. Firstly, significance analysis is conducted on the nominal parameters of the photovoltaic panel and the characteristic parameters in the meteorological data extrapolation method to determine the set of nominal parameters. Then, establish a least squares support vector machine model to fit the adaptive function relationship between the nominal parameter set and the feature parameters. Finally, an adaptive power prediction model is established, which converts the ambient temperature and irradiance into the temperature and irradiance of the panel based on the installation mode of photovoltaic panels, selects the characteristic parameters suitable for the current photovoltaic cell model based on the adaptive function, and inputs the meteorological data extrapolation method to obtain the predicted power. The research results indicate that the adaptive power prediction model can adaptively select appropriate feature parameters for different ty

Key words

photovoltaic power generation / power forecasting / extrapolation / significance analysis / adaptive function

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Wang Lijie, Zhang Qingshan, Hao Ying, Zhou Ying, Qiu Min, Sun Chong. PHOTOVOLTAIC ADAPTIVE POWER PREDICTION MODEL BASED ON METEOROLOGICAL DATA EXTRAPOLATION AND SIGNIFICANCE ANALYSIS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(2): 317-325 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0132

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