ULTRA-SHORT-TERM FORECASTING MODEL OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER BASED ON IMPROVED EMOTIONAL NEURAL NETWORK USING BO-SVM AND ISO

Wang Yufei; Wang Xianzhe; Xue Hua; Yu Guangzheng; Yang Xiu

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0180

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (6) : 280-288. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0180

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM FORECASTING MODEL OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER BASED ON IMPROVED EMOTIONAL NEURAL NETWORK USING BO-SVM AND ISO

Wang Yufei, Wang Xianzhe, Xue Hua, Yu Guangzheng, Yang Xiu

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Abstract

Aiming at the problem of low accuracy in ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting, caused by weak fitting ability of short reflex pathway of traditional brain emotional neural network （ENN）, a modified model based on ENN using bayesian optimization-support vector machine （BO-SVM） and improved snake optimization （ISO） is proposed. Firstly, in order to improve the nonlinear fitting ability of short reflen pathway, the hyperplane selection method of three-dimension phase points of historical data based on BO-SVM is adopted, and the nonlinear features of historical data are extracted by considering the distance between three-dimension phase points and hyperplane. Secondly, the snake optimization algorithm is improved and applied to the weight optimization of ENN, to ensure the short reflen pathway can reasonably express the nonlinear characteristics of the historical data. Then, the chaos phase space reconstruction of photovoltaic power time series is carried out, and the ultra-short-term forecasting model of photovoltaic power based on improved ENN using BO-SVM and ISO is established. Finally, the proposed ultra-short term forecasting model of photovoltaic power is verified using the measured data, which can realize the improvement of accuracy under different weather conditions.

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photovoltaic power / forecasting / chaos theory / improved brain emotional neural network

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Wang Yufei, Wang Xianzhe, Xue Hua, Yu Guangzheng, Yang Xiu. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM FORECASTING MODEL OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER BASED ON IMPROVED EMOTIONAL NEURAL NETWORK USING BO-SVM AND ISO[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(6): 280-288 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0180

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