COMBINED PREDICTION OF THERMAL AND COLD POWER LOAD FOR INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM CONSIDERING COUPLING RELATION

Gan Dingfu; Jiang Aihua; Tian Junyang; Gao Yuhang; Wang Rui

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0221

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8) : 573-584. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0221

COMBINED PREDICTION OF THERMAL AND COLD POWER LOAD FOR INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM CONSIDERING COUPLING RELATION

Gan Dingfu¹, Jiang Aihua¹, Tian Junyang², Gao Yuhang¹, Wang Rui¹

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Abstract

Aiming at the problems of low prediction accuracy and difficult prediction caused by complex coupling relationship between multiple loads in the combination of traditional decomposition technology and artificial intelligence model, a short-term load forecasting model based on Completely Adaptive Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition（CEEMDAN）,Whale Optimization Algorithm（WOA）and Gated Recurrent Unit（GRU）is proposed. The Spearman correlation coefficient（SRCC）is used to select different loads as input features to mine the internal relationship of multiple loads in different seasons. The load sequence is decomposed by CEEMDAN to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy caused by too complex load sequence. The WOA algorithm is introduced to optimize the parameters in the GRU network to overcome the randomness of the parameter selection process of the GRU network. Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparative simulation. The experimental results showed that compared with RNN, TCN, LSTM, and GRU, CEEMDAN-WOA-GRU reduced root mean square error and mean absolute error by 44.5%, 43.1%, 44.4%, 32.2%, and 47.2%, 46.9%, 44.1%, and 36.4%, respectively, and increased coefficient of determination by 27.4%, 34.8%, 25.7%, and 17.7%, respectively.

Key words

CEEMDAN / whale optimization algorithm / integrated energy system / gated recurrent unit / load forecasting

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Gan Dingfu, Jiang Aihua, Tian Junyang, Gao Yuhang, Wang Rui. COMBINED PREDICTION OF THERMAL AND COLD POWER LOAD FOR INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM CONSIDERING COUPLING RELATION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(8): 573-584 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0221

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