4-168 HOURS MEDIUM-SHORT TERM MULTI-STEP PV POWER FORECASTING WITH DAILY TYPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BASED ON AUTOREGRESSIVE AND HIGH-FREQUENCY DYNAMIC COUPLING MODEL

Huang Jing; Yuan Chengxu; Guo Su

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0277

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (6) : 298-305. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0277

4-168 HOURS MEDIUM-SHORT TERM MULTI-STEP PV POWER FORECASTING WITH DAILY TYPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BASED ON AUTOREGRESSIVE AND HIGH-FREQUENCY DYNAMIC COUPLING MODEL

Huang Jing, Yuan Chengxu, Guo Su

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Abstract

A daily typical characteristics multi-step prediction method based on a coupled autoregressive and dynamical system model is proposed. The correlation between PV output data and weather information is analyzed and examined, and the matrix of daily typical characteristics is established. Then, through the matrix information of daily typical characteristics, the forecasting value of coupled autoregressive and dynamical system model is fixed as exponential smoothing to cuhieve short-term （16 steps in 4 hours, 96 steps in 24 hours）, medium-term （168 hours 168 steps） multi-step prediction. Comparing with the popular LSTM model, the results show that the model has a high prediction accuracy and the error is reduced by 26.1-57.8 percentage points. Of this, the full year NRMSE value predicted 7 days in advance is 21.8%.

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solar energy / time series / multi-step prediction / typical characteristics / high frequency dynamics

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Huang Jing, Yuan Chengxu, Guo Su. 4-168 HOURS MEDIUM-SHORT TERM MULTI-STEP PV POWER FORECASTING WITH DAILY TYPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BASED ON AUTOREGRESSIVE AND HIGH-FREQUENCY DYNAMIC COUPLING MODEL[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(6): 298-305 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0277

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