MODELING METHOD FOR ANNUAL WIND POWER OUTPUT SEQUENCE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RAMPING CHARACTERISTICS

Zhang Rui; Chen Haoxuan; Zhang Lizi; Huang Xianchao; Wang Yun; Tian Hongjie

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0917

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (10) : 570-580. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0917

MODELING METHOD FOR ANNUAL WIND POWER OUTPUT SEQUENCE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RAMPING CHARACTERISTICS

Zhang Rui¹, Chen Haoxuan¹, Zhang Lizi¹, Huang Xianchao¹, Wang Yun², Tian Hongjie³

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Abstract

To address the issue of inadequate long-term flexible adjustment capacity caused by the frequent occurrence of wind power ramping events in the new power system, a modeling method for the annual output sequence of wind power considering the ramping characteristics is proposed. This method enhances the precision of system flexibility assessment over medium- and long-term time horizons, thereby providing guidance for the planning and development of flexibility resources. Initially, wind power ramping segments are meticulously filtered and extracted using the Spinning Door algorithm and the Four-Point method. Subsequently, the daily wind power output ramping characteristic indices are identified by analyzing the morphology and distribution properties of these ramping segments. With these indices in hand, the K-medoids clustering algorithm and kernel density estimation are employed to establish a probabilistic distribution model for the daily wind power output ramping features. This enables the generation of a daily wind power output sequence that encapsulates both ramping characteristics and time series attributes, achieved through Monte Carlo sampling and sequence optimization techniques. In the final step, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method is utilized to simulate the impact of meteorological conditions on the transition characteristics between daily wind power output sequences, thereby creating annual wind power output sequences that accurately reflect both the stochastic nature and ramping characteristics of wind power. The simulation is grounded in wind power output data from a province in Northwest China. The resultant annual wind power output sequences are then applied to assess the long-term flexibility of the system, validating the efficacy and practical applicability of the proposed methodology.

Key words

wind power / power system planning / cluster analysis / ramping characteristics / flexibility assessment

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Zhang Rui, Chen Haoxuan, Zhang Lizi, Huang Xianchao, Wang Yun, Tian Hongjie. MODELING METHOD FOR ANNUAL WIND POWER OUTPUT SEQUENCE TAKING INTO ACCOUNT RAMPING CHARACTERISTICS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(10): 570-580 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0917

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