ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND FARM OUTPUT PREDICTION CONSIDERING THE CORRELATION OF WIND POWER FLUCTUATIONS

Li Chuandong; Zhang Minghui; Zhang Yi; Yi Ziyuan; Niu Huaqing

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1299

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (11) : 754-763. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1299

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND FARM OUTPUT PREDICTION CONSIDERING THE CORRELATION OF WIND POWER FLUCTUATIONS

Li Chuandong¹, Zhang Minghui², Zhang Yi³, Yi Ziyuan², Niu Huaqing³

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Abstract

In order to improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term output prediction of wind farms under wind speed fluctuations, this paper proposes a new method for ultra-short-term output prediction considering the spatial and temporal correlation of wind fluctuations between adjacent wind farms. Firstly, based on the relative position of wind speed, wind direction and the relative position of wind farms, the time difference between output fluctuations is calculated, and the prediction time period with prior information is determined based on this basis. Secondly, the variational Bayesian model is used to extract the implicit relationship between the output fluctuation of the adjacent wind farm and the influence of the measured output, and the prediction of the output of the prior information period is realized. Finally, the output prediction of the complete ultra-short-term prediction cycle is obtained by completing the period prediction without prior information. The measured data of three wind farms in Fujian Province are used for verification. The results show that the proposed method can effectively utilize the output fluctuation characteristics of adjacent wind farms and improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term output prediction of target wind farms.

Key words

wind output prediction / ultra-short-term prediction / spatial-temporal analysis / prior information period / variational Bayesian model / spatio-temporal correlation / multiple wind farms

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Li Chuandong, Zhang Minghui, Zhang Yi, Yi Ziyuan, Niu Huaqing. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM WIND FARM OUTPUT PREDICTION CONSIDERING THE CORRELATION OF WIND POWER FLUCTUATIONS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(11): 754-763 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1299

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