MODELING OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION BASED ON TOPP-LEONE-WEIBULL

Liu Jun; Xiong Guojiang

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1352

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (12) : 693-700. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1352

MODELING OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION BASED ON TOPP-LEONE-WEIBULL

Liu Jun, Xiong Guojiang

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Abstract

In order to solve the problem of poor flexibility and low accuracy of wind speed probability distribution model in fitting wind speed, a better performance TLW（Topp-Leone-Weibull） distribution model is constructed based on the Topp-Leone distribution family and introducing Weibull. Considering that the increase of model parameters brings about the increase of computational complexity, differential evaluation algorithm is used to optimize the model parameters to ensure the computational effect. Meanwhile, the wind speed data of a region offshore of Fujian over 8 years are selected for the simulation study, and the model is comprehensively evaluated by root mean square error（RMSE）, mean absolute error（MAE）, coefficient of determination test（R²） and chi-square test （X²）. The results show that, compared with the traditional Weibull distribution and other types of distributions, the TLW distribution mode1 shows stronger adaptability in fitting the irregular fluctuations that exist in the upper convex section of low wind speeds of 0-5 m/s and the lower concave section of high wind speeds of 15-20 m/s, and it can effectively capture the trend of the wind speed changes, significantly improve the fitting accuracy, and better track the actual wind speed distribution.

Key words

wind speed / heuristic algorithms / Weibull distribution / Topp-Leone distribution / wind power resource assessment / fitting

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Liu Jun, Xiong Guojiang. MODELING OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION BASED ON TOPP-LEONE-WEIBULL[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(12): 693-700 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1352

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