ULTRA-SHORT-TERM CHAOTIC PREDICTION MODEL FORPHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION BASED ON HGS-VMD-ENN

Wang Yufei; Wu Guxuan; Sang Yiyan; Xue Hua; Yu Aiqing; Mi Yang

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1485

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (1) : 64-71. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1485

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM CHAOTIC PREDICTION MODEL FORPHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION BASED ON HGS-VMD-ENN

Wang Yufei, Wu Guxuan, Sang Yiyan, Xue Hua, Yu Aiqing, Mi Yang

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Abstract

Aiming at the problem of insufficient prediction accuracy due to the drastic fluctuation of PV power under non-clear-skg weather conditions, an ultra-short-term PV power chaotic prediction model based on hunger games search （HGS） optimized variational mode decomposition （VMD） and emotional neural network （ENN） is proposed. Firstly, the HGS algorithm is used for optimization of VMD core parameters to improve the adaptivity of VMD, and an HGS-VMD fitness function considering weighted permutation entropy and decomposition loss is designed to reduce the complexity of the decomposition component and the influence of the residual component on the prediction results. Then, the phase space is reconstructed using the improved C-C method for the VMD decomposition components, and after extracting their regularity information, the phase space reconstruction matrix is input into the ENN model for prediction. Finally, the proposed prediction model is verified by simulation based on the measured PV power data, and the results show that the proposed prediction model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of PV power under non-clear-sky weather conditions.

Key words

photovoltaic power generation / power prediction / variational mode decomposition / chaos theory / brain emotional neural network / power fluctuation

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Wang Yufei, Wu Guxuan, Sang Yiyan, Xue Hua, Yu Aiqing, Mi Yang. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM CHAOTIC PREDICTION MODEL FORPHOTOVOLTAIC POWER GENERATION BASED ON HGS-VMD-ENN[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(1): 64-71 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1485

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