RESEARCH ON BIPV/T BUILDING LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON MULTI-STAGE SHAP ANALYSIS AND METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION

Wang Qingyu; Quan Zhenhua; Li Haoran; Deng Yuechao; Wang Lincheng; Zhao Yaohua

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2064

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 1-10. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2064

RESEARCH ON BIPV/T BUILDING LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON MULTI-STAGE SHAP ANALYSIS AND METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION

Wang Qingyu¹, Quan Zhenhua¹, Li Haoran², Deng Yuechao³, Wang Lincheng¹, Zhao Yaohua^1,4

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Abstract

This study proposes an advanced load forecasting model based on GA-BP, which integrates multi-stage SHAP feature analysis and meteorological parameter prediction. The proposed approach employs multi-stage SHAP analysis to investigate the influence of meteorological parameters on building loads across different time scales. This enables the identification of critical time scales, optimization of input variable selection, reduction of feature redundancy, and mitigation of overfitting risks. Additionally, a high-precision meteorological parameter prediction framework is developed by combining K-means clustering with a composite model architecture. The GA-BP model is then utilized to achieve accurate load forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, achieving a maximum coefficient of determination of 0.86 and a mean squared error（MSE） of 0.0961. Compared to a standalone GA-BP model, the proposed approach reduces MSE by 40.12%, significantly improving prediction accuracy. This high-precision forecasting capability, available prior to the activation of the building energy supply system.

Key words

solar buildings / thermal load / neural networks / load forecasting / BIPV / PV/T / Shapley additive explanations （SHAP）

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Wang Qingyu, Quan Zhenhua, Li Haoran, Deng Yuechao, Wang Lincheng, Zhao Yaohua. RESEARCH ON BIPV/T BUILDING LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON MULTI-STAGE SHAP ANALYSIS AND METEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(4): 1-10 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2064

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