EXPLORATION OF PV POTENTIAL AND SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERIZATION OF DROUGHT UNDER SSP SCENARIO

Wu Chunchao; Zuo Dongming; Li Wulin; Pan Zhangrong; Zhou Yuci; Guo Junhong

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2111

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 630-635. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2111

EXPLORATION OF PV POTENTIAL AND SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERIZATION OF DROUGHT UNDER SSP SCENARIO

Wu Chunchao¹, Zuo Dongming¹, Li Wulin¹, Pan Zhangrong², Zhou Yuci², Guo Junhong²

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Abstract

This study, based on the high-resolution climate dataset GDDP, evaluates the PV power potential and future PV drought characteristics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under different shared socioeconomic pathway （SSP） scenarios. The results indicate that, compared to the historical period, future climate change will lead to a slight decline in PV capacity factor of the region, with a more pronounced decrease under the SSP585 scenario than under SSP245. By the mid-to-late 21st century, the PV capacity factor is projected to decline by approximately 1.5%. Furthermore, the frequency （increasing by 1.5-2.0 events per year）, duration （extending from 10.83 days to 28.6-43.3 days）, and intensity （increasing by 3-5 times）of PV drought events are expected to increase. Under the SSP245 scenario, northern parts of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will experience a more significant rise in PV drought occurrences, whereas under SSP585, the intensity of PV droughts will increase more substantially in the southern areas. Compared to the historical period, climate change will significantly shorten the return period of PV drought events （by approximately 12-25 years）, further exacerbating the instability of PV power generation.

Key words

climate change / drought / PV power / capacity factor / Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei / SSP scenarios

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Wu Chunchao, Zuo Dongming, Li Wulin, Pan Zhangrong, Zhou Yuci, Guo Junhong. EXPLORATION OF PV POTENTIAL AND SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERIZATION OF DROUGHT UNDER SSP SCENARIO[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(4): 630-635 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2111

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