ULTRA-SHORT-TERM POWER PREDICTION OF OFFSHORE WIND POWER CONSIDERING WAKE EFFECT

Wei Shurong; Peng Ransheng; Fu Yang; Yang Xin&#x02019;gang; Fang Chen

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2142

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 268-277. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2142

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM POWER PREDICTION OF OFFSHORE WIND POWER CONSIDERING WAKE EFFECT

Wei Shurong¹, Peng Ransheng¹, Fu Yang¹, Yang Xin’gang², Fang Chen²

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Abstract

Accurate prediction of ultra-short-term power of offshore wind farm is an important means to ensure the safe operation of offshore wind power system. Because offshore wind power has the characteristics of low sea level roughness and dense layout of wind turbines, its power generation is significantly affected by wake. An ultra-short-term power prediction method for offshore wind farms considering wake effect is proposed. Firstly, the weather research and forecasting model （WRF） coupled with the wind farm parameterization （WFP） is used to quantitatively evaluate the wake effect between adjacent offshore wind farms, and the obtained wake quantification index is used as the input data of the prediction model. Then, on the basis of considering wake effect, the prediction models of spatio-temporal graph convolutional network, spatially adaptive feature modulation module （SAFM） and partial convolutional （PConv） based on learnable adjacency matrix are established. Finally, the proposed prediction method is applied to an adjacent offshore wind farm group in Jiangsu Province to quantitatively analyze the wake effect between wind farms. The example shows that the proposed method can significantly improve the power prediction accuracy of offshore wind farms and offer technical assistance for the high-quality advancement of offshore wind power.

Key words

offshore wind farms / wind power / forecasting / wake / WRF simulation

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Wei Shurong, Peng Ransheng, Fu Yang, Yang Xin’gang, Fang Chen. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM POWER PREDICTION OF OFFSHORE WIND POWER CONSIDERING WAKE EFFECT[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(4): 268-277 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2142

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