PROVINCIAL MULTI-ENERGY COLLABORATIVE CAPACITY PLANNING CONSIDERING HYDRO-WIND-SOLAR RESOURCE ENDOWMENT AND CARBON EMISSION CONSTRAINTS

Li Ming; Liu Yong; Wanyan Rui; Zhang Meng; Zhao Ziwen; Chen Diyi

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2305

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5) : 25-36. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2305

PROVINCIAL MULTI-ENERGY COLLABORATIVE CAPACITY PLANNING CONSIDERING HYDRO-WIND-SOLAR RESOURCE ENDOWMENT AND CARBON EMISSION CONSTRAINTS

Li Ming^1,2, Liu Yong^1,2, Wanyan Rui^1,2, Zhang Meng^1,2, Zhao Ziwen^1,2, Chen Diyi^1,2

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Abstract

Addressing the lack of consideration for regional resource potential and carbon emissions in existing capacity planning models, this study develops an energy system planning model using the MESSAGEix framework. The model incorporates China's regional water resource potential and techno-economic characteristics, exploring decarbonization pathways under coal power decommissioning and carbon emission constraints. Results indicate that both constraints accelerate wind and solar expansion, with wind power growth averaging 10.07% higher and photovoltaic growth 32.49% higher than the baseline scenario. Carbon emission constraints drive renewable expansion more significantly than coal decommissioning, while pumped-storage hydropow or exhibits the opposite trend due to hydropower resource endowment and the exisiting energy structure.

Key words

multi-energy complementarity / capacity planning / power system capacity planning model / resource endowment / carbon emission constraints / carbon neutral

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Li Ming, Liu Yong, Wanyan Rui, Zhang Meng, Zhao Ziwen, Chen Diyi. PROVINCIAL MULTI-ENERGY COLLABORATIVE CAPACITY PLANNING CONSIDERING HYDRO-WIND-SOLAR RESOURCE ENDOWMENT AND CARBON EMISSION CONSTRAINTS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(5): 25-36 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2305

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