RESEARCH ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES IN MAINLAND CHINA BASED ON FINE-SCALE DATA

Zhang Weirui; Hu Qi; Chu Xiya; Zhang Ke; He Huayun; Wang Xiaochen

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2373

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5) : 1-12. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2373

RESEARCH ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES IN MAINLAND CHINA BASED ON FINE-SCALE DATA

Zhang Weirui¹, Hu Qi^1,2, Chu Xiya², Zhang Ke², He Huayun^1,3, Wang Xiaochen^1,4

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Abstract

Based on daily meteorological data from 496 stations across China spanning 1961 to 2020, this study investigates the abundance, stability, and spatio-temporal distribution of seasonal solar energy resources. By integrating multi-source data—including high-resolution digital elevation models （DEM）, land use, geomorphology, population density, and photovoltaic （PV） potential—we estimate provincial PV power generation potential and analyze the actual spatial distribution and deployment modes of PV stations. The results reveal that Northwest China and Inner Mongolia, with annual surface solar radiation exceeding 5040 kWh·m^-2, possess rich and stable solar resources highly suitable for PV development. Over the past 60 years, solar energy resources have exhibited a downward trend, with the most pronounced decline observed in summer （-6.10 kW·h/（m²·10a））. China's total PV generation potential is estimated at 32.29 trillion kW·h, with Xinjiang accounting for the highest provincial potential （6.62 trillion kW·h）. Conversely, Hebei province recorded the highest actual PV generation in 2023 （23.21 billion kW·h）. Regions such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Northeast China demonstrate low solar resource utilization （ratio of actual to potential generation<1%）, indicating they should be prioritized for future PV expansion. The spatial distribution of existing PV stations aligns well with the spatial distribution of PV generation potential. While centralized PV systems currently dominate the deployment, substantial potential remains for distributed PV development.

Key words

solar energy resources / surface solar radiation / photovoltaic power generation / resource utilization / photovoltaic power plants / spatial distribution

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Zhang Weirui, Hu Qi, Chu Xiya, Zhang Ke, He Huayun, Wang Xiaochen. RESEARCH ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF SOLAR ENERGY RESOURCES IN MAINLAND CHINA BASED ON FINE-SCALE DATA[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(5): 1-12 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2373

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