PREDICTION METHOD FOR REMAINING LIFE OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DYNAMIC GAMMA PROCESS AND PARAMETER ADAPTIVE ADJUSTMENT

Chen Wei; Wu Yang; Pei Tingting; Wei Zhi; Wu Yan

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2395

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5) : 697-704. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2395

PREDICTION METHOD FOR REMAINING LIFE OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DYNAMIC GAMMA PROCESS AND PARAMETER ADAPTIVE ADJUSTMENT

Chen Wei, Wu Yang, Pei Tingting, Wei Zhi, Wu Yan

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Abstract

To address the dynamic characteristics of photovoltaic （PV） module degradation and the need for adaptive remaining useful life （RUL） prediction, a Dynamic Gamma Degradation Process Model （DGDPM） is established, and a PV module RUL prediction method integrating degradation modeling with adaptive parameter updating is proposed. First, a power degradation model for PV modules based on the DGDPM is constructed to characterize the time-varying behavior of the degradation process. Subsequently, the distribution parameters of the Gamma process are dynamically adjusted using real-time degradation data. An interpolation technique is introduced to enhance data resolution, while a sliding window mechanism is employed to enable real-time parameter updating, thereby improving prediction accuracy and robustness. Through modeling and analysis of degradation data from different stages and different PV modules, the proposed method is validated in terms of its accuracy and superiority for real-time RUL prediction of PV modules.

Key words

photovoltaic module / service life / degradation / DGP / real-time prediction

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Chen Wei, Wu Yang, Pei Tingting, Wei Zhi, Wu Yan. PREDICTION METHOD FOR REMAINING LIFE OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DYNAMIC GAMMA PROCESS AND PARAMETER ADAPTIVE ADJUSTMENT[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(5): 697-704 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2395

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