ULTRA-SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PREDICTION BASED ON SEASONAL SIMILAR DAY CLUSTERING AND STACKING ENSEMBLE LEARNING

Li Zhongwen; Li Haiyang; Cheng Zhiping; Sui Quan; Wang Yi

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0002

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5) : 732-740. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0002

ULTRA-SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PREDICTION BASED ON SEASONAL SIMILAR DAY CLUSTERING AND STACKING ENSEMBLE LEARNING

Li Zhongwen, Li Haiyang, Cheng Zhiping, Sui Quan, Wang Yi

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Abstract

Traditional ultra-short-term photovoltaic （PV） power forecasting methods often rely on a single prediction model, resulting in limited stability and generalization capability. To overcome these shortcomings, this study proposes a novel ultra-short-term PV power forecasting approach integrating seasonal similar-day clustering with Stacking ensemble learning. Key meteorological features relevant to PV output are first identified using Pearson and Spearman correlation analyses. Historical data from an Australian PV plant are then processed through seasonal K-means similar-day clustering to capture the seasonal characteristics of PV generation more accurately. Four diverse base learners—long short-term memory （LSTM） networks, convolutional neural networks （CNN）, extreme learning machine（ELM）, and support vector machine（SVM）—are combined, with extreme gradient boosting （XGBoost） serving as the meta-learner. The hyperparameters of XGBoost are optimized via the particle swarm optimization （PSO） algorithm to construct the final Stacking ensemble model. Simulation results verify that the proposed method delivers enhanced forecasting accuracy and stability under diverse seasonal and meteorological conditions.

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photovoltaic power generation / power prediction / neural networks / K-means clustering / Stacking ensemble learning

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Li Zhongwen, Li Haiyang, Cheng Zhiping, Sui Quan, Wang Yi. ULTRA-SHORT-TERM PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER PREDICTION BASED ON SEASONAL SIMILAR DAY CLUSTERING AND STACKING ENSEMBLE LEARNING[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(5): 732-740 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0002

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