VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIANCE FORECASTS BY THREE NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS UNDER HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS

Yuan Bin; Shen Yanbo; Zhang Jinman; Ailiyaer Aihaiti; Zhao Zengbao; Wang Xueqi

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0014

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4) : 11-19. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0014

VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIANCE FORECASTS BY THREE NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS UNDER HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS

Yuan Bin^1,2, Shen Yanbo^1,2, Zhang Jinman³, Ailiyaer Aihaiti⁴, Zhao Zengbao³, Wang Xueqi^1,2

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Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of 3 numerical prediction models： CMA-WSP, CMA-MESO and NCEP-GFS, of the global horizontal irradiance （GHI） at 30 PV stations in Hebei Province in 2022. The results show that the CMA-WSP has the lowest forecasting error and the highest correlation coefficient, followed by CMA-MESO. The CMA-WSP exhibits a systematic overestimation, while both CMA-MESO and NCEP-GFS show a systematic underestimation. The CMA-MESO has the lowest large error ratio （with a deviation of over 200 W/m²）, while the CMA-WSP coming second. All models show samples with deviation of more than 700 W/m². During fog, haze, and sandstorm weather processes, the CMA-WSP performs the best, while the CMA-MESO performs the best during rainfall, snowfall, continuous rainy periods, and severe convective weather processes. For PV stations at different locations, the forecasting performance of the three models varies significantly across different weather processes. For some stations, the overall forecasting errors of all numerical models are relatively small across different weather processes, while for others, the overall errors are larger.

Key words

solar radiation / forecasting / numerical model / high-impact weather / PV station / verification

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Yuan Bin, Shen Yanbo, Zhang Jinman, Ailiyaer Aihaiti, Zhao Zengbao, Wang Xueqi. VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION OF GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIANCE FORECASTS BY THREE NUMERICAL PREDICTION MODELS UNDER HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(4): 11-19 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0014

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