SHORT-TERM POWER LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON SDTW-IPAM AND INFORMER

Du Long; Li Fengting; Su Changsheng; Li Zhongzheng; Liao Mengke; Peng Shasha

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0551

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8) : 436-445. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0551

SHORT-TERM POWER LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON SDTW-IPAM AND INFORMER

Du Long¹, Li Fengting¹, Su Changsheng², Li Zhongzheng³, Liao Mengke³, Peng Shasha⁴

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Abstract

A short-term power load forecasting method based on soft dynamic time warping-improved partitioning around medoids （SDTW-IPAM） and Informer is proposed to address the problem of power load volatility and nonlinearity enhancement. Firstly, the soft-DTW distance metric is introduced to accurately portray the dynamic time-series characteristics of the load curve and effectively identify the local deformation of the load curve; and the PAM clustering algorithm is improved by combining the Gap statistic and the K-means++ initialization strategy, which classifies the original loads into bimodal loads, peak loads and smooth loads, so that the model training is more targeted. Secondly, the maximum information coefficient （MIC） is applied to the typical loads of each category for feature selection, which identifies the key influencing factors of the loads and achieves differentiated feature extraction. Meanwhile, in order to improve the prediction performance of the model, the Informer model is introduced to construct exclusive prediction models respectively. Finally, the actual load data of Urumqi, Xinjiang is used as an example for validation, and the results show that the proposed combined forecasting model can effectively improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting and has strong practical value.

Key words

electric load forecasting / clustering algorithms / attention mechanism / Informer / soft dynamic time warping

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Du Long, Li Fengting, Su Changsheng, Li Zhongzheng, Liao Mengke, Peng Shasha. SHORT-TERM POWER LOAD FORECASTING BASED ON SDTW-IPAM AND INFORMER[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(8): 436-445 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0551

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