PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF TIME-SERIES PRODUCTION SIMULATION FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY BASES IN GOBI AND DESERT AREAS BASED ON DASGI METHOD

Jiang Qi; Pan Wenxuan; Lin Xingyu; Zhang Yifan; Tang Junjie; Zhou Niancheng

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0636

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8) : 498-508. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0636

PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF TIME-SERIES PRODUCTION SIMULATION FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY BASES IN GOBI AND DESERT AREAS BASED ON DASGI METHOD

Jiang Qi¹, Pan Wenxuan¹, Lin Xingyu¹, Zhang Yifan², Tang Junjie¹, Zhou Niancheng¹

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Abstract

For renewable energy bases in gobi and desert areas exporting power via high-voltage direct current （HVDC） transmission links, addressing the challenge of low computational efficiency when evaluating their renewable energy integration rates and transmission corridor utilization rates through time-series production simulation under probabilistic scenarios, this study proposes a fast probabilistic analysis method based on a dimension adaptive sparse grid interpolation （DASGI） surrogate model for time-series production simulation. First, Monte Carlo sampling is integrated with time-series production simulation to perform probabilistic analysis under dual uncertainty factors. Then, the DASGI surrogate model is employed to approximate the complex original model within time-series production simulations, enabling fast probabilistic analysis and risk assessment. Experimental results demonstrate that the DASGI model achieves high consistency with the original simulation while significantly reducing the computation time. Moreover, the DASGI model, when applied with a larger sample size, effectively identifies potential exceeding limit risk.

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renewable energy / HVDC power transmission / Monte Carlo methods / time-series production simulation / dimension adaptive sparse grid interpolation

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Jiang Qi, Pan Wenxuan, Lin Xingyu, Zhang Yifan, Tang Junjie, Zhou Niancheng. PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS OF TIME-SERIES PRODUCTION SIMULATION FOR LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY BASES IN GOBI AND DESERT AREAS BASED ON DASGI METHOD[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(8): 498-508 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0636

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