CROSS DAY OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF PHOTOVOLTAIC-SOLAR THERMAL INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM CONSIDERING PROBABILITY OF WEATHER CHANGE

Liu Xinping; Mao Yinghao

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0649

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Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8) : 278-287. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0649

CROSS DAY OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF PHOTOVOLTAIC-SOLAR THERMAL INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM CONSIDERING PROBABILITY OF WEATHER CHANGE

Liu Xinping, Mao Yinghao

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Abstract

A double-layer particle swarm optimization scheduling method based on weather probability model is proposed to address the problems of low accuracy of solar irradiance prediction and large data volatility in cross day scheduling of photovoltaic-solar thermal integrated energy systems, in order to ensure the stability and economy of the system. Establish a probability distribution model for solar irradiance intensity based on the Beta distribution, and design a 72 hour-24 hour double-layer particle swarm optimization architecture based on the probability model. The upper layer responds to weather uncertainty by storing solar thermal energy reasonably, while the lower layer performs economic scheduling based on the probability of weather changes. The case analysis shows that the collaborative mechanism improvement strategy of probability model and double-layer optimization can solve the optimal irradiance intensity point of the system under different weather types. Compared with traditional scheduling strategies, it can achieve the coordinated optimization of energy configuration and scheduling cost of thermal storage systems under various uncertain weather conditions for a long time scale.

Key words

solar thermal power / solar irradiance / electric load dispatching / integrated energy system / probability of weather changes / long time scale scheduling

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Liu Xinping, Mao Yinghao. CROSS DAY OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF PHOTOVOLTAIC-SOLAR THERMAL INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEM CONSIDERING PROBABILITY OF WEATHER CHANGE[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(8): 278-287 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0649

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