STUDY ON CARBON EMISSION AND EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION PROCESS BASED ON LCA-LEAP MODELING

Shao Peng; Xu Pengbo; Yu Zhiqiang; Xue Kaixuan; Li Zekun; Wang Yuzhu

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0703

PDF(1786 KB)

Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (9) : 260-268. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0703

STUDY ON CARBON EMISSION AND EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION PROCESS BASED ON LCA-LEAP MODELING

Shao Peng, Xu Pengbo, Yu Zhiqiang, Xue Kaixuan, Li Zekun, Wang Yuzhu

Author information +

History +

Abstract

In order to evaluate the environmental impact of photovoltaic product manufacturing, the carbon emissions attributable to the production of 1 kg of monocrystalline silicon wafers were estimated using a life cycle assessment （LCA） methodology, including contribution analysis, sensitivity analysis, improvement analysis and energy payback period analysis. It is calculated that the production of 1 kg of monocrystalline silicon wafers emits a total of 397.6 kg（in this paper, carbon emissions are measured in carbon dioxide）. The contribution analysis showed that the CO₂ emission of monocrystalline silicon rods and wafers was the largest, accounting for 58.22%; polysilicon purification was the second, accounting for 32.63%; industrial silicon smelting has the smallest CO₂ emissions, accounting for 9.15%. Sensitivity analysis shows that electricity is the most sensitive factor affecting the carbon emissions of the entire process, with a sensitivity of 37.66%. The improvement analysis shows that the use of renewable electricity is a significant emission reduction measure, which will reduce carbon emissions by 149.84 kg. Through data analysis, the energy payback period of 1kg monocrystalline silicon wafer is 3.35 years. Finally, the long-range energy alternatives planning system （LEAP） is used to predict the carbon emissions of 1 kg monocrystalline silicon wafer production under multiple single scenarios and their comprehensive scenarios from 2025 to 2030, and it is found that the potential of combining technology and energy structure emission reduction is the highest, followed by the energy structure emission reduction scenario, and the potential of the technology emission reduction scenario is the lowest.

Key words

monocrystalline silicon / LEAP model / carbon emissions / life cycle assessment / carbon projections / scenario analysis

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

Shao Peng, Xu Pengbo, Yu Zhiqiang, Xue Kaixuan, Li Zekun, Wang Yuzhu. STUDY ON CARBON EMISSION AND EMISSION REDUCTION POTENTIAL OF MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION PROCESS BASED ON LCA-LEAP MODELING[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(9): 260-268 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0703

References

[1] Peng J Q, Lu L, Yang H X.Review on life cycle assessment of energy payback and greenhouse gas emission of solar photovoltaic systems[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2013, 19: 255-274.
[2] Liu F Y, Zeng Q, Li J J, et al.Emerging inorganic compound thin film photovoltaic materials: Progress, challenges and strategies[J]. Materials Today, 2020, 41: 120-142.
[3] Olaleru S A, Kirui J K,Wamwangi D, et al.Perovskite solar cells: The new epoch in photovoltaics[J]. Solar Energy, 2020, 196: 295-309.
[4] Heidari S M, Anctil A.Country-specific carbon footprint and cumulative energy demand of metallurgical grade silicon production for silicon photovoltaics[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2022, 180: 106171.
[5] Stylos N,Koroneos C.Carbon footprint of polycrystalline photovoltaic systems[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2014, 64: 639-645.
[6] Yang D, Liu J R, Yang J X, et al.Life-cycle assessment of China’s multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules considering international trade[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 94: 35-45.
[7] Sumper A, Robledo-García M,Villafáfila-Robles R, et al.Life-cycle assessment of a photovoltaic system in Catalonia (Spain)[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2011, 15(8): 3888-3896.
[8] Fu Y Y, Liu X, Yuan Z W.Life-cycle assessment of multi-crystalline photovoltaic (PV) systems in China[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2015, 86: 180-190.
[9] Hou G F, Sun H H, Jiang Z Y, et al.Life cycle assessment of grid-connected photovoltaic power generation from crystalline silicon solar modules in China[J]. Applied Energy, 2016, 164: 882-890.
[10] Tao M,Fthenakis V, Ebin B, et al.Major challenges and opportunities in silicon solar module recycling[J]. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 2020, 28(10): 1077-1088.
[11] Lim M S W, He D, Tiong J S M, et al. Experimental, economic and life cycle assessments of recycling end-of-life monocrystalline silicon photovoltaic modules[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2022, 340: 130796.
[12] 傅银银. 中国多晶硅光伏系统生命周期评价[D]. 南京:南京大学, 2013.
Fu Y Y.Life cycle assessment of multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic system in China[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University, 2013.
[13] 李鹞,于随然. 中国光伏系统的生命周期评价[J]. 环境工程, 2014, 32(10): 119-124.
Li Y, Yu S R.Life cycle assessment of photovoltaic system in China[J]. Environmental Engineering, 2014, 32(10): 119-124.
[14] 谢明辉,阮久莉,白璐,等. 太阳能级多晶硅生命周期环境影响评价[J]. 环境科学研究, 2015, 28(2): 291-296.
Xie M H, Ruan J L, Bai L, et al.Environmental impacts of solar grade polysilicon based on life cycle assessment[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2015, 28(2): 291-296.
[15] 李兴盛,胡向然,郑淞生,等. 基于多晶硅金刚线切割工艺的光伏生命周期分析[J]. 太阳能学报, 2022, 43(3): 147-151.
Li X S, Hu X R, Zheng S S, et al.Life cycle analysis of photovoltaic based on diamond wire saw process[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2022, 43(3): 147-151.
[16] Miao A K, Yuan Y, Wu H, et al.Pathway for China’s provincial carbon emission peak: a case study of the Jiangsu Province[J]. Energy, 2024, 298: 131417.
[17] 王君,解晓燕,刘文君,等. 多情景模拟的山东省交通运输碳达峰及减排潜力分析[J]. 环境污染与防治, 2026, 48(1): 140-147.
Wang J, Xie X Y, Liu W J, et al.Analyses of carbon emission peak and reduction potential for Shandong transportation through multi-scenario simulation[J]. Environmental Pollution & Control, 2026, 48(1): 140-147.
[18] Balaras C A, Dascalaki E G, Patsioti M, et al.Carbon and greenhouse gas emissions from electricity consumption in European union buildings[J]. Buildings, 2024, 14(1): 71.
[19] 把哈尔古丽·帕塔尔, 张旭龙, 陈宁. 基于基础情景的新疆建筑领域碳排放预测方法研究[J]. 施工技术(中英文), 2024, 53(5): 139-145.
Bahaerguli P, Zhang X L, Chen N.Research on prediction methods of carbon emission in Xinjiang construction field based on basic scenario[J]. Construction Technology, 2024, 53(5): 139-145.
[20] 陈浩,胡静茹,王寿兵,等. 中国钢铁行业CO₂排放特征和减排路径研究:基于ARIMA-LEAP模型[J]. 中国环境科学, 2024, 44(6): 3531-3543.
Chen H, Hu J R, Wang S B, et al.Research on carbon dioxide emission characteristics and emission reduction path of China’s iron and steel industry based on ARIMA-LEAP model[J]. China Environmental Science, 2024, 44(6): 3531-3543.
[21] Zeng S Z, Gu J X, Peng X D.Low-carbon cities comprehensive evaluation method based on Fermatean fuzzy hybrid distance measure and TOPSIS[J]. Artificial Intelligence Review, 2023, 56(8): 8591-8607.
[22] 邢红. 碳达峰背景下江苏省能源需求影响因素及预测分析[J]. 数学的实践与认识, 2024, 54(2): 59-73.
Xing H.Influencing factors and forecast analysis of energy demand in Jiangsu Province under the background of carbon emission peak: based on STIRPAT model[J]. Mathematics in Practice and Theory, 2024, 54(2): 59-73.
[23] O’Ryan R, Nasirov S, Osorio H. Assessment of the potential impacts of a carbon tax in Chile using dynamic CGE model[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2023, 403: 136694.
[24] 柴麒敏. 美丽中国愿景下我国碳达峰、碳中和战略的实施路径研究[J]. 环境保护, 2022, 50(6): 21-25.
Chai Q M.Study on the transition pathways towards carbon emission peak and neutrality in beautiful China perspective[J]. Environmental Protection, 2022, 50(6): 21-25.
[25] Susmaga R,Szczęch I, Brzezinski D.Towards explainable TOPSIS: Visual insights into the effects of weights and aggregations on rankings[J]. Applied Soft Computing, 2024, 153: 111279.
[26] 陆保一,明庆忠,史鹏飞,等. 基于DPSIR-SBM框架的旅游生态安全时空动态及影响路径:以云南省为例[J]. 地理与地理信息科学, 2023, 39(6): 134-142.
Lu B Y, Ming Q Z, Shi P F, et al.Spatio-temporal evolution and influence paths of tourism ecological security based on DPSIR-SBM framework: a case study of Yunnan Province[J]. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2023, 39(6): 134-142.
[27] 孙湫娟. “双碳”背景下中国钢铁行业二氧化碳排放情景模拟及减排路径研究[D]. 南昌:江西财经大学, 2023.
Sun QJ.Carbon dioxide emission scenario simulation and emission reduction path research of China’s steel industry under the background of "double carbon"[D]. Nanchang: Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, 2023.
[28] 李姗姗,马雨晴,孔维龄,等. 基于LEAP模型的安徽省能源需求与碳排放预测[J]. 环境科学, 2025, 46(8): 4911-4922.
Li S S, Ma Y Q, Kong W L, et al.Energy demand and carbon emission prediction in Anhui Province based on LEAP model[J]. Environmental Science, 2025, 46(8): 4911-4922.
[29] Zhao H L, Liu F, Liu H Q, et al.Comparative life cycle assessment of two ceramsite production technologies for reusing municipal solid waste incinerator fly ash in China[J]. Waste Management, 2020, 113: 447-455.
[30] 韩海忠,杨凤玲,孔卉茹,等. 生物质型煤与褐煤的生命周期评价对比研究[J]. 洁净煤技术, 2016, 22(2): 89-95, 101.
Han H Z, Yang F L, Kong H R, et al.Life cycle assessment of biomass briquette and lignite[J]. Clean Coal Technology, 2016, 22(2): 89-95, 101.
[31] 王姿怡. 光伏系统生命周期能效评价及应用规划研究[D]. 济南:山东大学, 2023.
Wang Z Y.Study on the life cycle energy efficiency evaluation and deployment planning of PV systems[D]. Jinan: Shandong University, 2023.
[32] Fan M Y, Yu Z Q, Ma W H, et al.Life cycle assessment of crystalline silicon wafers for photovoltaic power generation[J]. Silicon, 2021, 13(9): 3177-3189.
[33] 何津津. 基于生命周期评价的光伏发电碳排放研究[D]. 南京:南京航空航天大学, 2017.
He J J.Research on carbon emission of photovoltaic generation with life cycle assessment[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2017.
[34] Jiang K Z, Chen Z J, Ma W H.Research on LCA data and environmental impact of industrial silicon smelting and high purity crystal silicon purification[J]. Silicon, 2024, 16(2): 573-583.
[35] 庄园,温金城,卞与良,等. 晶体硅和钙钛矿光伏组件碳足迹研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2023, 44(12): 41-46.
Zhuang Y, Wen J C, Bian Y L, et al.Study on carbon footprint of crystalline silicon and perovskite photovoltaic modules[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica, 2023, 44(12): 41-46.
[36] 岳海霏. 工信部修订光伏制造行业规范条件[J]. 科技中国, 2015(4): 38-39.
Yue H F.The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the specifications and conditions of photovoltaic manufacturing industry[J]. Science and Technology in China, 2015(4): 38-39.
[37] 刁周玮,石磊. 中国光伏电池组件的生命周期评价[J]. 环境科学研究, 2011, 24(5): 571-579.
Diao Z W, Shi L.Life cycle assessment of photovoltaic panels in China[J]. Research of Environmental Sciences, 2011, 24(5): 571-579.
[38] 于志强. 冶金法多晶硅及其光伏系统并网发电的生命周期评价研究[D]. 昆明:昆明理工大学, 2017.
Yu Z Q.Study on life cycle assessment of metallurgical polysilicon and its photovoltaic system connected to grid for power generation[D]. Kunming: Kunming University of Science and Technology, 2017.
[39] 中国光伏行业协会.中国光伏产业发展路线图2024-2025年[EB/OL].https://www.chinapv.org.cn/Industry/resource_1405.html.
China Photovoltaic Industry Association. “China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap (2024-2025)”[EB/OL]. https://www.chinapv.org.cn/Industry/resource_1405.html.
[40] Huang B J, Zhao J, Chai J Y, et al.Environmental influence assessment of China’s multi-crystalline silicon (multi-Si) photovoltaic modules considering recycling process[J]. Solar Energy, 2017, 143: 132-141.
[41] 单彤文,宋鹏飞,李又武,等. 制氢、储运和加注全产业链氢气成本分析[J]. 天然气化工(C1化学与化工), 2020, 45(1): 85-90, 96.
Shan T W, Song P F, Li Y W, et al.Cost analysis of hydrogen from the perspective of the whole industrial chain of production, storage, transportation and refueling[J]. Natural Gas Chemical Industry, 2020, 45(1): 85-90, 96.
[42] 国家发展和改革委员会. 《其他有色金属冶炼和压延加业企业温室气体排放核算方法与报告指南(试行)》[EB/OL].https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/201511/W020190905506435474174.pdf.
National Development and Reform Commission. “Other non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industryGuidelines for the accounting methods and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions for enterprises (Trial)”[EB/OL].https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/tz/201511/W020190905506435474174.pdf.
[43] Yu Z Q, Ma W H, Xie K Q, et al.Life cycle assessment of grid-connected power generation from metallurgical route multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic system in China[J]. Applied Energy, 2017, 185: 68-81.
[44] Yang S Q, Yu Z Q, Ma W H, et al.Research on carbon emission of solar grade polysilicon produced by metallurgical route using digital simulation technology[J]. Silicon, 2023, 15(15): 6567-6578.
[45] Yang Y C, Ma L, Ma W H, et al.Life cycle assessment of typical tower solar thermal power station in China[J]. Energy, 2024, 309: 133154.