利用安装在国内多地12朝向太阳辐照度远程监测系统所采集的数据,分析和比较不同地区的太阳辐照度概率分布特性,针对其截断双峰性、时序周期性和不确定性的基本特征,选用双贝塔混合模型,构建不同朝向、不同时间尺度（年、月、时）的太阳辐照度概率密度函数,搭建相应的数据库,为光伏发电系统的规划与建设提供科学依据,为大型光伏电站对电网安全与稳定运行影响的研究提供数学模型。
Abstract
Based on the data collected by the 12-direction solar irradiance remote monitoring systems installed in many cities in China, the probability distribution characteristics in different regions are analyzed and compared. Regarding the truncated bimodality, time series periodicity and uncertainty of the probability distribution, a double-beta hybrid model is applied to construct the probability density function of solar irradiance in different orientations and different time scales （year, month, and hour）. The corresponding database can provide a scientific basis for the planning and construction of photovoltaic power generation systems, and a mathematical model can be provided for the study of its impact on the security and stable operation of power grid as well.
关键词
太阳能 /
太阳辐射 /
概率密度函数 /
远程监测 /
双峰性 /
双贝塔混合模型
Key words
solar energy /
solar radiation /
probability density function /
remote monitoring /
bimodality /
double-beta hybrid model
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] TEMPS R C, COULSON K L.Solar radiation incident upon slopes of different orientations[J]. Solar energy, 1977, 19(2): 179-184.
[2] 杜尧东, 毛慧琴, 刘爱君, 等. 广东省太阳总辐射的气候学计算及其分布特征[J]. 资源科学, 2003, 25(6): 66-70.
DU Y D, MAO H Q, LIU A J, et al.The climatological calculation and distributive character of global solar radiation in Guangdong province[J]. Resources science, 2003, 25(6): 66-70.
[3] TANG R S, WU T.Optimal tilt-angles for solar collectors used in China[J]. Applied energy, 2004, 79(3): 239-248.
[4] 日本新エネルギー產業技術総合開發機构(NEDO). 日射量データベース[DB/OL]. www.nedo.go.jp, 2017.
The New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO). Solar radiation data base[DB/OL]. www.nedo.go.jp, 2017.
[5] TOVAR J, OLMO F J, ALADOS-ARBOLEDAS L.One-minute global irradiance probability density distributions conditioned to the optical air mass[J]. Solar energy, 1998, 62(6): 387-393.
[6] TOVAR J, OLMO F J, BATLLES F J, et al.One minute kb and kd probability density distributions conditioned to the optical air mass[J]. Solar energy, 1999, 65(5): 297-304.
[7] 樊磊. 分布式光伏电源并网出力概率分布模型的研究[D]. 北京: 华北电力大学, 2012.
FAN L.Research on probabilistic distribution model of on-grid distributed photovoltaic power[D]. Beijing: North China Electric Power University, 2012.
[8] FERNÁNDEZ-PERUCHENA C M,BERNARDOS A. A comparison of one-minute probability density distributions of global horizontal solar irradiance conditioned to the optical air mass and hourly averages in different climate zones[J]. Solar energy, 2015, 112: 425-436.
[9] 陈旭, 杨雨瑶, 张勇军, 等. 光伏光照概率性对配电网电压的影响[J]. 华南理工大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 43(4): 112-118.
CHEN X, YANG Y Y, ZHANG Y J, et al.Influence of illumination probability of photovoltaic system on voltage of power distribution networks[J]. Journal of South China University of Technology(natural science edition), 2015,43(4): 112-118.
[10] WAHBAH M, EL-FOULY T H M, ZAHAWI B, et al.Hybrid Beta-KDE model for solar irradiance probability density estimation[J]. IEEE transactions on sustainable energy, 2020, 11(2): 1110-1113.
[11] NOORIAN A M, MORADI I, KAMALI G A.Evaluation of 12 models to estimate hourly diffuse irradiation on inclined surfaces[J]. Renewable energy, 2008, 33(6): 1406-1412.
[12] WANG F, MI Z Q, SU S, et al.Short-term solar irradiance forecasting model based on artificial neural network using statistical feature parameters[J]. Energies, 2012, 5(5): 1355-1370.
[13] 张曦, 康重庆, 张宁, 等. 太阳能光伏发电的中长期随机特性分析[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2014, 38(6): 6-13.
ZHANG X, KANG C Q, ZHANG N, et al.Analysis of mid/long term random characteristics of photovoltaic power generation[J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2014, 38(6): 6-13.
[14] 龚莺飞, 鲁宗相, 乔颖, 等. 光伏功率预测技术[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2016, 40(4): 140-151.
GONG Y F, LU Z X, QIAO Y, et al.An overview of photovoltaic energy system output forecasting technology[J]. Automation of electric power systems, 2016, 40(4): 140-151.
[15] 徐政, 胡晓燕, 陈青, 等. 多朝向太阳能资源的测量与研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2016, 37(4): 891-896.
XU Z, HU X Y, CHEN Q, et al.Measurement and study of solar energy resource in different orientations[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2016, 37(4): 891-896.
[16] 吴贞龙, 徐政, 胡晓燕, 等. 倾斜面太阳辐照度实用计算模型的设计[J]. 太阳能学报, 2016, 37(3): 787-793.
WU Z L, XU Z, HU X Y, et al.Study on practical calculating models of irradiance intensity on tilted surfaces[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2016, 37(3): 787-793.
[17] 徐政, 刘滨, 熊强, 等. 多地区太阳能资源的监测与分析[J]. 太阳能学报, 2020, 41(10): 174-181.
XU Z, LIU B, XIONG Q, et al.Monitoring and analysis of solar energy resources in different areas[J]. Acta energiae solaris sinica, 2020, 41(10): 174-181.
PDF(2123 KB)
