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ISSN 0254-0096 CN 11-2082/K

太阳能学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (11): 132-139.DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2021-0192

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实用多朝向太阳辐照度概率密度函数研究

张娅琴1, 徐政1, 于海衡1, 邱宗旭2   

  1. 1.清华大学深圳国际研究生院电力系统国家重点实验室深圳研究室,深圳 518055;
    2.深圳市气象服务中心,深圳 518040
  • 收稿日期:2021-02-24 出版日期:2022-11-28 发布日期:2023-05-28
  • 通讯作者: 张娅琴(1994—),女,硕士,主要从事电力电子技术与新能源发电方面的研究。totoro_dashui@126.com

STUDY ON PRACTICAL PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION OF SOLAR IRRADIATION IN MULTI-ORIENTATIONS

Zhang Yaqin1, Xu Zheng1, Yu Haiheng1, Qiu Zongxu2   

  1. 1. National Key Laboratory of Power Systems in Shenzhen, Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China;
    2. Shenzhen Meteorological Service Center, Shenzhen 518040, China
  • Received:2021-02-24 Online:2022-11-28 Published:2023-05-28

摘要: 利用安装在国内多地12朝向太阳辐照度远程监测系统所采集的数据,分析和比较不同地区的太阳辐照度概率分布特性,针对其截断双峰性、时序周期性和不确定性的基本特征,选用双贝塔混合模型,构建不同朝向、不同时间尺度(年、月、时)的太阳辐照度概率密度函数,搭建相应的数据库,为光伏发电系统的规划与建设提供科学依据,为大型光伏电站对电网安全与稳定运行影响的研究提供数学模型。

关键词: 太阳能, 太阳辐射, 概率密度函数, 远程监测, 双峰性, 双贝塔混合模型

Abstract: Based on the data collected by the 12-direction solar irradiance remote monitoring systems installed in many cities in China, the probability distribution characteristics in different regions are analyzed and compared. Regarding the truncated bimodality, time series periodicity and uncertainty of the probability distribution, a double-beta hybrid model is applied to construct the probability density function of solar irradiance in different orientations and different time scales (year, month, and hour). The corresponding database can provide a scientific basis for the planning and construction of photovoltaic power generation systems, and a mathematical model can be provided for the study of its impact on the security and stable operation of power grid as well.

Key words: solar energy, solar radiation, probability density function, remote monitoring, bimodality, double-beta hybrid model

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