基于模型预测控制的高比例可再生能源电力系统多时间尺度动态可靠优化调度

罗政杰; 任惠; 辛国雨; 卢锦玲; 王飞

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0177

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太阳能学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (6) : 150-160. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0177

基于模型预测控制的高比例可再生能源电力系统多时间尺度动态可靠优化调度

罗政杰¹, 任惠¹, 辛国雨², 卢锦玲¹, 王飞¹

作者信息 +

MULTI-TIME SCALE DYNAMIC RELIABLE OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF POWER SYSTEM WITH HIGH PROPOTTION RENEWABLE ENERGY BASED ON MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL

Luo Zhengjie¹, Ren Hui¹, Xin Guoyu², Lu Jinling¹, Wang Fei¹

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

提出基于模型预测控制的高比例可再生能源电力系统多时间尺度动态可靠优化调度方法,通过日前优化调度、日内滚动优化、运行风险计算及反馈校正几个环节,对可再生能源发电和系统内可调资源进行最优调度。日内实时调度阶段,基于日前调度计划和实时运行状况,采用回归预测算法,自适应选择重要变量预测系统未来运行状态,通过吉布斯抽样得到关键变量的概率密度,快速量化系统下一时刻的运行风险,并将风险反馈至日内滚动优化阶段,重复进行可靠优化调度。仿真算例结果验证所提方法的适应性和可行性。

Abstract

The ouput uncertainty of renewable generation and the fluctuation of load require integrated risk evaluation and optimal scheduling based on the real-time operation state of the system. Through the timely warning of the operational risk and adjusting the current control strategy accordingly, the safety and economy of power grid operation is coordinated and ensured. This paper presents a multi-time scale dynamic reliable optimal dispatch method for high proportion renewable energy power systems based on Model Predictive Control. The reliable optimal dispatch of electric system with high share of renewables is carried out through day ahead predictive optimal dispatching, day rolling optimal regulation, operation risk assessment and feedback correction of renewable generations and adjustable resources in the system. In the intra-day stage, based on the day ahead scheduling plan and real-time operation status, regression prediction algorithm is used to adaptively select key variables to predict the future operation status of the system. The probability density of representative variable is obtained through Gibbs sampling, which can quickly quantify the operation risk of the system at the next moment. The risk is then feedback to the day rolling optimal regulation to perform repeated reliable optimal scheduling. The simulation results verify the adaptability and feasibility of the proposed method.

导出引用

罗政杰, 任惠, 辛国雨, 卢锦玲, 王飞. 基于模型预测控制的高比例可再生能源电力系统多时间尺度动态可靠优化调度[J]. 太阳能学报. 2024, 45(6): 150-160 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0177

Luo Zhengjie, Ren Hui, Xin Guoyu, Lu Jinling, Wang Fei. MULTI-TIME SCALE DYNAMIC RELIABLE OPTIMAL SCHEDULING OF POWER SYSTEM WITH HIGH PROPOTTION RENEWABLE ENERGY BASED ON MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2024, 45(6): 150-160 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-0177

中图分类号： TM73

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