基于蒙特卡洛法的光伏系统老化评估及发电量预测方法研究

汤霜霜; 白建波; 侯天才; 聂海缘; 项立鹏; 郑爽

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0089

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5) : 311-319. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0089

基于蒙特卡洛法的光伏系统老化评估及发电量预测方法研究

汤霜霜¹, 白建波², 侯天才¹, 聂海缘¹, 项立鹏¹, 郑爽¹

作者信息 +

RESEARCH ON AGING ASSESSMENT AND POWER GENERATION PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM BASED ON MONTE CARLO METHOD

Tang Shuangshuang¹, Bai Jianbo², Hou Tiancai¹, Nie Haiyuan¹, Xiang Lipeng¹, Zheng Shuang¹

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文章历史 +

摘要

针对光伏系统运行期间组件发生老化衰减的问题,构建一个全面的光伏系统老化评估及发电量预测模型,并对其进行有效性验证。运用蒙特卡洛法模拟组件老化后不一致变化的电性能参数,解决因老化速率不同而引起的失配衰减率及老化总衰减率计算难题,并基于老化总衰减率对光伏系统投运期间逐年发电量进行预测。结合案例分析,以25 a为投运年限,对不同光伏系统投运期间的老化总衰减率及发电量预测进行仿真并与PVsyst对比,结果表明,采用蒙特卡洛的算法模型具有较高的精度,可用于评估光伏系统投运期间的老化总衰减率、预测未来的发电量,最后基于光伏系统老化规律提出阶段性维护建议。

Abstract

A comprehensive photovoltaic system aging assessment and power generation prediction model was constructed to address the issue of components aging during the operation of the photovoltaic system, and its effectiveness was validated. The Monte Carlo method was used to simulate the inconsistent changes in electrical parameters due to component aging to calculate the total aging rate and mismatch rate caused by varying aging rates. Additionally, the annual power generation during the operation of the photovoltaic system was predicted based on the total aging rate. The total aging rate and power generation prediction of different photovoltaic systems over 25 years of operation were simulated based on case analysis. The comparison results show that the algorithm model using Monte Carlo exhibits high accuracy and can be applied to evaluate the total aging rate and predict future power generation of the photovoltaic system during operation. Finally, phased maintenance recommendations were provided based on the aging patterns of photovoltaic systems.

导出引用

汤霜霜, 白建波, 侯天才, 聂海缘, 项立鹏, 郑爽. 基于蒙特卡洛法的光伏系统老化评估及发电量预测方法研究[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(5): 311-319 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0089

Tang Shuangshuang, Bai Jianbo, Hou Tiancai, Nie Haiyuan, Xiang Lipeng, Zheng Shuang. RESEARCH ON AGING ASSESSMENT AND POWER GENERATION PREDICTION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEM BASED ON MONTE CARLO METHOD[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(5): 311-319 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0089

中图分类号： TM615

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