考虑双碳目标的新型电力系统源-网-荷-储评价体系研究

闫群民; 屈晨光; 王磊; 董新洲; 马永翔

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1345

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太阳能学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (12) : 469-482. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1345

考虑双碳目标的新型电力系统源-网-荷-储评价体系研究

闫群民¹, 屈晨光¹, 王磊¹, 董新洲^1,2, 马永翔¹

作者信息 +

STUDY ON SOURCE-GRID-LOAD-STORAGE EVALUATION SYSTEM OF NEW-TYPE POWER SYSTEM UNDER CARBON PEAKING AND CARBON-NEUTRAL GOAL

Yan Qunmin¹, Qu Chenguang¹, Wang Lei¹, Dong Xinzhou^1,2, Ma Yongxiang¹

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文章历史 +

摘要

清洁低碳是新型电力系统的核心目标,为实现综合全面的系统低碳水平评价,建立考虑双碳目标的新型电力系统源-网-荷-储评价体系。针对目前源-网-荷低碳评价体系指标冗余、相关性强、实用性差以及缺少储能环节的问题,构建综合全面的新型电力系统源-网-荷-储低碳指标体系。针对主观赋权法与客观赋权法存在的局限性,引入层次分析法-CRITIC主客观组合赋权法,并基于最小二乘法计算综合权重。针对传统模糊评价存在的主观随意性问题,提出一种基于数据预测的改进FCM模糊综合评价方法,以数据为驱动,提高评价模型的客观性与科学性,同时保证评价模型在较长时间跨度内的适用性,实现对系统低碳水平的综合评价。最后,以中国西部某市电力系统为例,验证评价模型的有效性。

Abstract

Clean and low-carbon development is the core goal of the new-type power system. To facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of the carbonintensity, a source-grid-load-storage evaluation system of new-type power system under carbon peaking and carbon-neutral goal is established. A comprehensive new type of low-carbon indicator system for power system source-grid-load-storage is constructed to address the issues of redundant indicators, strong inter-correlation, limited practical utility, and the absence of energy storage in existing source-grid-load evaluation system. In response to the limitations of subjective and objective weighting methods, the AHP-CRITIC hybrid weighting method is introduced, and the comprehensive weights are calculated based on the least squares method. In light of China’s dual carbon goals and addressing the subjective biasof traditional fuzzy evaluation, an improved FCM fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on data-driven prediction is proposed. This method enhances the objectivity and scientific rigor of the evaluation model, while ensuring its applicability over extended time spans, thereby achieving a comprehensive evaluation of the low-carbon performanceof the power system. Finally, the effectiveness of the evaluation model is validated using the power system of a city in western China as a case study.

导出引用

闫群民, 屈晨光, 王磊, 董新洲, 马永翔. 考虑双碳目标的新型电力系统源-网-荷-储评价体系研究[J]. 太阳能学报. 2025, 46(12): 469-482 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1345

Yan Qunmin, Qu Chenguang, Wang Lei, Dong Xinzhou, Ma Yongxiang. STUDY ON SOURCE-GRID-LOAD-STORAGE EVALUATION SYSTEM OF NEW-TYPE POWER SYSTEM UNDER CARBON PEAKING AND CARBON-NEUTRAL GOAL[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2025, 46(12): 469-482 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1345

中图分类号： TM73

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