基于聚合模态分解和TCN-BiGRU的光伏功率预测模型

李梦阳; 陈柳; 史蒙; 赵玉娇

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1799

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (2) : 91-99. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1799

基于聚合模态分解和TCN-BiGRU的光伏功率预测模型

李梦阳, 陈柳, 史蒙, 赵玉娇

作者信息 +

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON AGGREGATE MODE DECOMPOSITION AND TCN-BiGRU

Li Mengyang, Chen Liu, Shi Meng, Zhao Yujiao

Author information +

文章历史 +

摘要

针对光伏发电功率随机性强、波动性高导致预测精度低的问题,提出一种基于聚合模态分解（AMD）、时间卷积网络（TCN）和双向门控循环单元（BiGRU）的光伏功率组合预测模型。该模型使用完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解（CEEMDAN）对原始光伏序列进行处理,得到多个频率不同的子序列,通过样本熵（SE）对子序列进行区分,保留含信号的低频、中频分量。将CEEMDAN分解得到的高频分量用逐次变分模态分解（SVMD）进行二次分解,降低序列不平稳度。最后,构建不同分量的TCN-BiGRU网络模型,得到各分量的预测值进行加和后输出最终预测结果。通过算例分析进行实验表明,对比其他模型,所提出的组合预测模型在光伏发电功率预测中具有较高的预测精度和稳定性。

Abstract

To address the issue of low prediction accuracy caused by the strong randomness and high volatility of photovoltaic power generation, a hybrid prediction model based on aggregated mode decomposition（AMD）, temporal convolutional network （TCN） and bidirectional gated recurrent unit （BiGRU） is proposed. In view of the randomness and high volatility of photovoltaic power generation, a complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise （CEEMDAN） is used to decompose the original photovoltaic sequence data for the first time, and a series of sub-sequences with different frequencies are obtained. Sample entropy （SE） is used to segment the molecular sequence, retaining the low-frequency and medium-frequency components of the signal. The high-frequency components obtained by CEEMDAN is decomposed secondarily by successive variational mode decomposition （SVMD） to reduce the sequence instability. Finally, the TCN-BiGRU model is used to predict each component, and final photovoltaic power prediction result is obtained by superimposing the prediction of each component. Experiments based on the analysis of arithmetic instances demonstrate that the forecasting accuracy and stability of the proposed hybrid prediction model outperform other approaches in photovoltaic power forecasting.

导出引用

李梦阳, 陈柳, 史蒙, 赵玉娇. 基于聚合模态分解和TCN-BiGRU的光伏功率预测模型[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(2): 91-99 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1799

Li Mengyang, Chen Liu, Shi Meng, Zhao Yujiao. PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER FORECASTING MODEL BASED ON AGGREGATE MODE DECOMPOSITION AND TCN-BiGRU[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(2): 91-99 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1799

中图分类号： TM615 TP18

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