计及水风光资源禀赋与碳排放约束的省级多能协同容量规划

李明; 刘泳; 完颜瑞; 张猛; 赵子文; 陈帝伊

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2305

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5) : 25-36. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2305

计及水风光资源禀赋与碳排放约束的省级多能协同容量规划

李明^1,2, 刘泳^1,2, 完颜瑞^1,2, 张猛^1,2, 赵子文^1,2, 陈帝伊^1,2

作者信息 +

PROVINCIAL MULTI-ENERGY COLLABORATIVE CAPACITY PLANNING CONSIDERING HYDRO-WIND-SOLAR RESOURCE ENDOWMENT AND CARBON EMISSION CONSTRAINTS

Li Ming^1,2, Liu Yong^1,2, Wanyan Rui^1,2, Zhang Meng^1,2, Zhao Ziwen^1,2, Chen Diyi^1,2

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文章历史 +

摘要

针对现有容量规划模型较少考虑区域资源禀赋以及碳排放的问题,基于MESSAGEix建模框架,构建考虑中国各地区水资源开发潜力和技术经济特点的能源系统规划模型,并在煤电退役约束和碳排放约束等不同场景下,探讨不同资源禀赋地区的电力系统脱碳转型规划。结果表明,煤电退役约束、碳排放约束均会促进风光资源的扩张进程,相较于基础场景风电增长速率平均高出10.07%,光伏增长速率平均高32.49%。此外,相较于煤电退役约束,碳排放约束对风光资源扩张进程的促进效果更为显著,而对于抽蓄技术受水电资源禀赋与能源架构现状影响,呈现相反趋势。

Abstract

Addressing the lack of consideration for regional resource potential and carbon emissions in existing capacity planning models, this study develops an energy system planning model using the MESSAGEix framework. The model incorporates China's regional water resource potential and techno-economic characteristics, exploring decarbonization pathways under coal power decommissioning and carbon emission constraints. Results indicate that both constraints accelerate wind and solar expansion, with wind power growth averaging 10.07% higher and photovoltaic growth 32.49% higher than the baseline scenario. Carbon emission constraints drive renewable expansion more significantly than coal decommissioning, while pumped-storage hydropow or exhibits the opposite trend due to hydropower resource endowment and the exisiting energy structure.

导出引用

李明, 刘泳, 完颜瑞, 张猛, 赵子文, 陈帝伊. 计及水风光资源禀赋与碳排放约束的省级多能协同容量规划[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(5): 25-36 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2305

Li Ming, Liu Yong, Wanyan Rui, Zhang Meng, Zhao Ziwen, Chen Diyi. PROVINCIAL MULTI-ENERGY COLLABORATIVE CAPACITY PLANNING CONSIDERING HYDRO-WIND-SOLAR RESOURCE ENDOWMENT AND CARBON EMISSION CONSTRAINTS[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(5): 25-36 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2305

中图分类号： TM715

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