利用中国496个站点1961—2020年逐日气象数据,分析中国尺度太阳能资源丰富程度、稳定程度与季节太阳能资源时空分布特征,融合高分辨率的数字高程模型（DEM）、土地利用类型数据、地貌分类数据、人口密度数据以及光伏资源潜力数据等多源数据,评估全国各省光伏潜在发电量,分析光伏电站的实际空间分布与安装方式。结果表明,西北与内蒙古地区年地表太阳辐射>5040 kW·h/m2,太阳能资源丰富且稳定,适宜发展光伏发电。60年来太阳能资源呈下降趋势,夏季下降程度最大（-6.10 kW·h/（m2·10 a））。中国光伏潜在发电量为322.9千亿kW·h,新疆为光伏潜在发电量最多的省份（66.2千亿kW·h）。2023年实际光伏发电量最多的省份为河北（232.1亿kW·h）,新疆、内蒙古、东北地区太阳能资源利用率较低,光伏实际发电量/潜在发电量<1%,未来应优先发展光伏发电。光伏电站空间分布符合光伏潜力发电量空间分布,各类型光伏电站展开方式以集中式为主,分布式还有较大开发空间。
Abstract
Based on daily meteorological data from 496 stations across China spanning 1961 to 2020, this study investigates the abundance, stability, and spatio-temporal distribution of seasonal solar energy resources. By integrating multi-source data—including high-resolution digital elevation models （DEM）, land use, geomorphology, population density, and photovoltaic （PV） potential—we estimate provincial PV power generation potential and analyze the actual spatial distribution and deployment modes of PV stations. The results reveal that Northwest China and Inner Mongolia, with annual surface solar radiation exceeding 5040 kWh·m-2, possess rich and stable solar resources highly suitable for PV development. Over the past 60 years, solar energy resources have exhibited a downward trend, with the most pronounced decline observed in summer （-6.10 kW·h/（m²·10a））. China's total PV generation potential is estimated at 32.29 trillion kW·h, with Xinjiang accounting for the highest provincial potential （6.62 trillion kW·h）. Conversely, Hebei province recorded the highest actual PV generation in 2023 （23.21 billion kW·h）. Regions such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Northeast China demonstrate low solar resource utilization （ratio of actual to potential generation<1%）, indicating they should be prioritized for future PV expansion. The spatial distribution of existing PV stations aligns well with the spatial distribution of PV generation potential. While centralized PV systems currently dominate the deployment, substantial potential remains for distributed PV development.
关键词
太阳能资源 /
太阳辐射 /
光伏发电 /
开发利用 /
光伏电站 /
空间分布
Key words
solar energy resources /
surface solar radiation /
photovoltaic power generation /
resource utilization /
photovoltaic power plants /
spatial distribution
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基金
国家重点研发计划（2023YFD1900504）; 中国农业大学2115人才工程资助项目; 中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室开放研究课题（2023010）
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