基于动态Gamma过程与参数自适应调整的光伏组件剩余寿命预测方法

陈伟; 吴阳; 裴婷婷; 魏智; 吴燕

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2395

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太阳能学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5) : 697-704. DOI: 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2395

基于动态Gamma过程与参数自适应调整的光伏组件剩余寿命预测方法

陈伟, 吴阳, 裴婷婷, 魏智, 吴燕

作者信息 +

PREDICTION METHOD FOR REMAINING LIFE OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DYNAMIC GAMMA PROCESS AND PARAMETER ADAPTIVE ADJUSTMENT

Chen Wei, Wu Yang, Pei Tingting, Wei Zhi, Wu Yan

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文章历史 +

摘要

针对光伏组件退化过程的动态变化特性及对剩余寿命自适应预测的需求,建立基于动态Gamma过程的退化模型（DGDPM）,并提出一种结合退化模型与参数自适应调整的光伏组件剩余寿命预测方法。首先,构建基于DGDPM的光伏组件功率退化模型,刻画组件退化过程的时间变化规律;然后,利用退化数据对Gamma过程分布参数进行动态调整,基于插值法提高数据分辨率,并使用滑动窗口法进行实时更新,以优化预测结果。通过对不同阶段、不同组件退化数据的建模与分析,验证了所提方法在光伏组件剩余寿命实时预测中的准确性和优越性。

Abstract

To address the dynamic characteristics of photovoltaic （PV） module degradation and the need for adaptive remaining useful life （RUL） prediction, a Dynamic Gamma Degradation Process Model （DGDPM） is established, and a PV module RUL prediction method integrating degradation modeling with adaptive parameter updating is proposed. First, a power degradation model for PV modules based on the DGDPM is constructed to characterize the time-varying behavior of the degradation process. Subsequently, the distribution parameters of the Gamma process are dynamically adjusted using real-time degradation data. An interpolation technique is introduced to enhance data resolution, while a sliding window mechanism is employed to enable real-time parameter updating, thereby improving prediction accuracy and robustness. Through modeling and analysis of degradation data from different stages and different PV modules, the proposed method is validated in terms of its accuracy and superiority for real-time RUL prediction of PV modules.

导出引用

陈伟, 吴阳, 裴婷婷, 魏智, 吴燕. 基于动态Gamma过程与参数自适应调整的光伏组件剩余寿命预测方法[J]. 太阳能学报. 2026, 47(5): 697-704 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2395

Chen Wei, Wu Yang, Pei Tingting, Wei Zhi, Wu Yan. PREDICTION METHOD FOR REMAINING LIFE OF PHOTOVOLTAIC MODULES BASED ON DYNAMIC GAMMA PROCESS AND PARAMETER ADAPTIVE ADJUSTMENT[J]. Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica. 2026, 47(5): 697-704 https://doi.org/10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2395

中图分类号： TM615

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